THE final round of log action in the Super 12 is upon us and if it were not for the complete absence of a South African team from the equation we would all be licking our lips in anticipation. The two home semifinalists are decided, and the unbeaten Crusaders play the Waratahs onSaturday in what may be a dress rehearsal of the final, but there are four teams contesting the other two places.
The Brumbies are the most likely team to fill third spot. George Gregan’s men got back on the bus with a convincing win against the Chiefs last week, thereby breaking a four-match losing streak, and they finish at home against the Blues. The other key encounter is in Dunedin where the third-placed Reds take on the fifth-placed Highlanders with the winner assured of a place in the last four.
The Highlanders return home having notched away wins over the Brumbies and the Blues and although they dropped a game at Invercargill earlier in the campaign, they are unbeaten in their past 14 at the House of Pain dating back to the 1999 final where they lost to the Crusaders. The Reds have never won in three attempts in Dunedin, but the Highlanders have lost the competition’s leading points-scorer, Tony Brown, to a hamstring injury.
The Reds won five in a row to reach the semifinals last year and have a similar streak going at the moment, but they have lost their past six matches in New Zealand, their most recent win being as long ago as March 1999 when they beat the Crusaders in Christchurch. They did beat the Highlanders 33-22 in Brisbane last year, but the odds seem to favour the two teams currently below them in the log and the Reds may find that this year their surge came too late.
There was a time when the Brumbies were all but unbeatable in Canberra, but their halo has slipped to the extent that they have now lost nine of 43 games there, a winning average of 79%. The Blues have beaten them twice at Bruce stadium in the Super 12, in 1998 and 1999, both times winning tight games by three points.
But even another win for the Blues may not be enough to get them into the semis, as they would need a four-try bonus point and a lopsided score line to have a chance. The Brumbies have a significantly better points differential than any of the four teams battling for the last two places and home advantage should ensure them of the win that will keep their season alive.
Whatever the result in Christ-church the Crusaders cannot be toppled from top spot, and if they win it will be a record-breaking clean sweep, beating the Blues who won 10 and drew one in 1997. The most likely semifinal scenario will see the Crusaders play the Highlanders at Jade stadium, while the Waratahs will entertain the Brumbies in Sydney.
If that turns out to be the case there will once again be a neat symmetry to the matches, with one all-Australia and one all-New Zealand match, thus ensuring a trans-Tasman final. Last year no Kiwi side made the last four and the Sharks beat the Cats in Durban to clinch the final spot against the Brumbies, who had beaten the Reds in Canberra.
It should come as a source of comfort to Springbok coach Rudolf Straeuli that rumours of the death of All Black rugby that were being shouted from the rooftops this time last year, were somewhat premature. When he reflects on the season at leisure Straeuli may note that a plethora of top players were unavailable to the South African teams this year, which had the happy consequence for the future that it threw a number of youngsters into the fray long before the conservative natures of most of our coaches would have normally allowed. This year started very badly, but it may yet finish in glory.