Diplomats from the ”big five” powers, which call the shots at the United Nations, are bracing themselves for a fresh round of intensive negotiations on Iraq.
The moment that the United States tables its draft resolution in a public sitting of the Security Council, the doors will close again as diplomats from the US, Britain, France, China and Russia work round the clock to agree a final text.
While there are small differences between Britain and the US, the main bones of contention are between the ”sceptical three”. They are: Russia, which initially saw no need for a fresh resolution after Iraq’s offer to re-admit inspectors; France, which believes that Iraq should be treated carefully with a two-stage process; and China, which is wary of the US throwing its weight around.
Washington’s commitment to a new resolution authorising the use of force if President Saddam Hussein fails to allow unfettered inspections remains the unshiftable bedrock of negotiations at the UN.
But last-minute tensions arose following US Secretary of State Colin Powell’s declaration, in a BBC radio interview, that Washington might pursue ”regime change” in Iraq even if the Iraqi leader complies fully with weapons inspections, a position to which none of the other permanent security council members subscribes. American officials sought to defuse any potential dispute, insisting that the resolution text proposed by the US would focus only on disarmament and the consequences for Saddam if he frustrated inspections.
It would be brief and simply worded, they said, declaring Iraq in ”material breach” of the terms of the Gulf War ceasefire, setting out terms and a timeframe for new inspections and concluding that if Iraq failed to comply, it could be forced to do so by all necessary means.
The US gave a frosty reception to French suggestions of a two- resolution approach, requiring the Security Council to agree on military action at some stage in the future. Although Washington had not closed the door on that option, the official said: ”We think one resolution can do all of this and if you try to move beyond one, it gives the Iraqis many opportunities to divide the council.”
Britain agrees with the US that a tough new inspections regime must be established and that the threat of military action must be spelt out to Iraq — in diplomatic terms — if it refuses to comply.
But relations between the two great allies hit a snag this week when the British ambassador, Sir Jeremy Greenstock, appeared to suggest that the US had placed its ”regime change” policy on ice.
British diplomats embarked on a frantic damage limitation exercise, claiming that Greenstock’s remarks had been taken out of context at a lunch of the 10 rotating members of the Security Council who lack the power of veto.
Officials insisted that nn Greenstock was notnnnnn rewriting US foreignnn policy but was nnnn attempting tom win round m waverers l by saying that a successful inspections regime would put off the policy of ”regime change”.
Russia reiterated its unease on Wednesday when it warned against the ”propaganda furore” surrounding the Blair dossier against Iraq.
It called talk of the UN Security Council discussing a new resolution ”premature”, despite growing indications that the Kremlin is ready to discuss a draft text, and considers a Security Council vote inevitable.
Russia’s Foreign Minister, Igor Ivanov, said in Moscow: ”I believe that only specialists and experts can judge whether or not Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. It is not worth creating a great propaganda furore around this report.”
He added that Russia would not oppose ”consultations [on] the swiftest return of international inspectors. [But] it is absolutely premature to speak about any mutual drawing together of the positions of members of the UN Security Council on such a resolution, which is non-existent.”
French officials on Wednesday denied rumours that France had already prepared a draft UN resolution on Iraq, insisting that Paris was not even convinced of the need for a new resolution. ”We consider that the most important thing now is that the weapons inspectors are allowed in and have complete freedom to do their job,” one source said.
But the officials said France would ”not object” to a supplementary resolution, providing it merely reiterated past requirements and ”reminded Baghdad of its obligations”.
Paris would welcome a deadline for the inspectors’ return, they said, but not any reference to the possible consequences of non-compliance.
China is trying desperately to steer a middle line on the Iraq crisis that will keep intact US-China relations while not giving a blank cheque to President George W Bush.
A unilateral US war on Iraq would be a nightmare scenario, especially with President Jiang Zemin due to visit Bush on his Crawford ranch later next month, shortly before a crucial congress of the communist party in November.
Premier Zhu Rongji, now on an European tour, has been the only Chinese leader to outline Beijing’s position. He has not ruled out a new UN resolution but warns that any measures taken should respect Iraq’s ”rational concerns about security”.
Zhu has called on Iraq to submit to the inspectors without prevarication, making it clear that China has no illusions about Saddam Hussein. Yet he says there should be no use of force without ”irrefutable evidence” from the inspectors, and any action must have UN approval. — (c) Guardian Newspapers 2002