Agricultural experts fear that adverse weather and government policies could soon expose South Africans to the kind of famine that is devastating communities in neighbouring countries.
An El Niño in the Pacific changed weather patterns last year, causing unusually dry conditions around the southern hemisphere this summer. Political and economic conditions compounded the problem in many Southern African countries and the World Food Programme estimates that 14-million people are at risk of starvation in Swaziland, Lesotho, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Malawi and Zambia.
Structural changes in agricultural marketing, rising unemployment and Spoornet’s reduced ability to transport large quantities of grain now add to the risk of starvation facing millions of South Africans.
This is the first drought to hit South Africa since the government closed the agricultural control boards in the mid-1990s and withdrew drought support for farmers.
South African farmers faced a scare in December when the rains failed in the summer grain-producing area, delaying planting. The rains of the past few weeks came late, but most farmers have planted their maize.
Harvest is many months away and the crop will need more water. As Bully Botma, chairperson of Grain South Africa, says: ”It didn’t rain mealies.”
Johan Willemse, a Free State farming consultant, said: ”All indications are that chances are good for a season with less than normal rainfall and the consequent effects that this would have. This is the great uncertainty and will be agriculture’s main concern in the months ahead.”
Chris Burgess, editor of Farmer’s Weekly, said of El Niño: ”Australia has been gripped by devastatingly dry conditions and the drought on the rest of the subcontinent is a well-known fact, [a drought] that farmers in Limpopo have snapping at their heels. One doesn’t want to be unduly pessimistic, but it’s difficult to imagine South Africa getting off scot-free.”
An El Niño in 1992 devastated South Africa’s maize crop, yet there was plenty of food for all. But things were different then, when the agricultural control boards protected farmers. Now they are at the mercy of global markets.
Back then, only the maize board could import maize. It stored surpluses in silos around the country. Fat years subsidised lean years and the board, as the sole supplier, kept the retail price stable. The board set the farm gate price of maize and set the price of the grain to millers.
Since then the government has dismantled the agricultural control boards under its market-oriented growth, employment and redistribution macroeconomic strategy.
The government turned over control to the market and will not support farmers, even in times of drought.
”I wish local politicians would speak about their farmers in the same way as the Australians, who support their farmers,” Burgess says. ”I simply don’t understand why politicians are incapable of seeing the farmer’s role in the broader context of national priorities.
The market is wide open. Anyone may move maize in and out of South Africa and the country is now firmly part of the international maize market. But South Africa produces only about 2% of the world’s white maize. Even France produces more.
The United States dominates world production and the Chicago Board of Trade effectively sets global prices. This means that maize has become a commodity like oil; when the price of crude oil rises on world markets, the price at local fuel stations soon follows.
And South African consumers must buy maize products that are effectively denominated in dollars.
The social problems only start there. Malnutrition is already commonplace, according to the Human Sciences Research Council.
Those who receive social grants support ever more family members, and rising unemployment means poverty is making the maize price irrelevant to millions of others with no income.
John Gordon, chairperson of the South African Cereals and Oilseeds Trade Organisation, says South Africa could produce enough food for domestic consumption.
”The problem is getting affordable food to everyone in the country.” He says Spoornet would be unable to transport imported maize if the crop failed and South Africa had to import the staple to feed its population.
Gordon says many experienced train crews took retrenchment packages in the past few years and few replacement crews have been trained. Grain trucks are dispersed around the length and breadth of Southern Africa and only 2 000 locomotives are available throughout the system.
Agricultural experts estimate that a failed maize crop would require the authorities to import four million tons, most of which would have to be transported by rail from the coast to the interior.
The South African Grains Council, chaired by Gordon, is working closely with the parastatal to create a department to coordinate the transport of grain around South Africa.
”There would be a huge improvement in Spoornet’s capacity if we harnessed all the skills and expertise available,” said Gordon.
Spoornet spokesman Mike Asefovitz refused to speculate on whether the company would be able to cope but added that it was in the process of retooling and training its drivers: ”We are on the brink of launching a R15-billion locomotive capital investment programme, which will be spent over the next 15 years, and we will be adjudicating the tenders soon.”
He added that parent company Transnet had allocated the rail corporation R200-million for rail wagon refurbishment, which was already spent. A further R150-million would be spent in the coming financial year.
”We have lent rolling stock to other African countries, but what we lent was not suitable for our purposes.”
A maize crop of about eight million tons this year would give the government the breathing space it needs to set up proper contingency plans for the next failed crop. And it’s coming. Even discounting the effects of global warming, the record shows that every seven to 11 years South Africa’s maize crop fails because of drought.