Thousands of South Africans are hitting the runways to foreign destinations that have become inexhaustible asylums for people in search of their own economic success stories. However, rather than an unabated continuation of the brain drain, this new Great Trek could have positive repercussions for the country — research reveals that it is possible to reap the benefits of the movement of South Africans to greener pastures.
Statistics South Africa, the government’s data agency, has revealed that in the first 10 months of last year, 9 337 people emigrated. The top five preferred destinations were the United Kingdom (3 087), the United States (948), New Zealand (837), Australia (1 409) and Canada (298). Broken down by continent, 3 167 South Africans went to Europe, 867 to Australasia and 990 to North America.
This compares to 3 623 documented immigrants accepted into South Africa in the first six months of 2002. A staggering 2 956 were considered economically inactive.
In 2001, 12 260 South Africans emigrated. The top five destinations were the UK (2 491), Australia (1 177), the US (757), New Zealand (688) and Namibia (261).
A Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) study to be launched in September, commissioned as part of the government’s Human Resources Development Strategy, estimates that in 2000, 2 852 South Africans from a total of 10 262 emigrated to the UK, one of South Africa’s most popular destinations. This compares to 2 316 in 1999 out of 8 487, and 2 880 in 1994 out of 10 234. The highest emigration was in 1977, when 9 753 South Africans emigrated to the UK out of 26 000. Similar figures followed in 1978 and 1985, dispelling the belief that emigration was accelerated with the change of government in 1994.
However, Tracy Bailey, author of the HSRC study and a senior researcher at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies at the University of Stellenbosch, said these official statistics are a serious undercount. She said the unofficial figures might be as much as three times higher because of irregularities in following emigrants. Statistics SA obtains its figures from the Department of Home Affairs, which are collated from airport departure forms at Cape Town, Johannesburg and Durban international airports. According to the deputy director general of Statistics SA, Dr Ros Hirschowigz, the departure forms are not compulsory and when people do complete them, they are not always honest.
”The forms give us an idea of people leaving, but not an accurate picture of emigration,” Hirschowigz said.
Nick Sheppard, a spokesperson at the British High Commission, said approximately 300 000 South Africans live in the UK at present, but that this estimate is ”based on anecdotal evidence”, for reasons cited above. To compound these inaccuracies, about 800 000 South Africans hold British passports and do not need assistance to enter the UK and work. Another loophole can extend their stay in the UK on the strength of British ancestry. After four years they gain residency and after another two, the emigrant can claim a British passport.
Bailey’s research reveals that although the traditional ”push and pull” factors — such as crime, low salaries, the Aids pandemic, unemployment and declining standards of health care and education, versus opportunities extended by South Africa’s reintegration into international business after apartheid-era isolation — remain major factors influencing emigration, the offset of globalisation during the 1990s is playing an even bigger role. Globalisation marks the emergence of the ”knowledge society”, where dimensions such as patents, research and development have superseded older means of competitiveness, such as labour costs, resource endowments and infrastructure.
”Information and knowledge are now the core features in the world, especially around scientific research. This means that anyone who is educated or highly skilled is also mobile,” said Bailey, who also confirmed that emigration is predominantly skills-based, rather than race-based. Her study shows that 24% of highly skilled professionals who emigrated in 2000 went to the UK. The loss is felt most acutely in engineering, medicine, accounting and financial services. A World Bank study of the manufacturing industry in Johannesburg shows that 35% of doctors who graduated from the University of Witwatersrand’s medical school in the 1990s have since emigrated.
A study of emigration to the UK, US, New Zealand, Canada and Australia by the Paris-based Institute for Development Research estimates that skilled workers emigrating from South Africa cost the country R67,8-billion between 1997 and 2000. The loss of each skilled professional is considered to destroy as many as 10 unskilled jobs. This flow has serious repercussions for the country’s effort to rise above a 3% economic growth rate, because the country is losing its best human capital while spending money on educating replacements.
And while other countries have no compunction about creaming off skilled people from South Africa, our government seems to be running on the spot. Former president Nelson Mandela made emigration an issue of patriotism, but the government has not matched this with efforts to attract skills to the country. In 2000, 2 439 skilled workers emigrated, but only 331 immigrated, resulting in a net loss of 2 108. There is an argument that immigrants will deprive locals of jobs. However, a study by the Southern African Migration Project (Samp) shows skilled immigrants will create enterprises and jobs for locals, enhance the productivity of existing enterprises and pass on valuable skills. Director of Samp and co-author of the study Vincent Williams asked why South Africa should not also gain from an immigration policy that attracts the brightest and best from other countries.
”Why should South Africa be that different? It is important to attract immigrants to build the South African economy,” he said.
A new immigration Bill, which was rushed through Parliament in May last year in order to meet the June 2 2002 Constitutional Court deadline for its enactment, remains a red herring for keeping skilled immigrants out of the country. The purpose of the Bill should be to make it easier to recruit needed skilled foreigners, but it is hindered by a quota system set by skill level, and on requirements that employers with foreign workers train local workers to eventually replace the foreigners. President Thabo Mbeki himself admitted to the Bill being flawed and that it is insufficient to attract skilled labour in a country where the skills shortage is between 200 000 and 300 000.
However, according to Bailey there are new trends emerging that are challenging the phenomenon of human capital flight.
”Apart from the brain drain, we have some evidence of what we call the brain circulation. This is the return of people to the country after about five years. They go overseas to pay off debts or on a gap year and then come back.” This is also known as the brain exchange, where some countries like Australia and New Zealand are feeling no loss because ”people are coming in as fast as they are leaving”. Bailey said this is a growing trend, which will eventually benefit South Africa
To further reverse the brain drain into a brain gain, the South African Network of Skills Abroad, a database for people to access information to ensure that when they emigrate they can still contribute skills to the country, is being developed by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) with a specific human-resource development focus to link expatriate South Africans with local experts and projects. Another initiative, AfricaRecruit, launched last year by the Commonwealth Business Council and created in support of Nepad, encourages Africans living outside the continent to bring their skills home to help rebuild the continent.
There are some programmes aimed at drawing top researchers to the country, such as the University of Witwatersrand’s Friedland Fellowship, an attempt to reverse the brain drain by offering globally competitive, post-doctoral research opportunities to foreign students and researchers.
Barry Mendelow, a professor at Wits, says: ”South Africa is an exciting place in many ways, for example to research health care issues. We need to become globally competitive but also to act as a role model for local scientists.”
Said Bailey: ”We need to move away from the brain drain being necessarily negative and view it as something that is stimulating and which South Africa should be a part of.”