Six recent by-election results reconfirm the African National Congress’s dominant position in South African politics — but also show its percentage of the vote is falling as opposition parties are gaining support.
A Democratic Alliance by-election victory in the eastern suburbs of Tshwane (Pretoria) may mark a turnaround in the party’s nosediving fortunes over the past year.
The DA may have the Inkatha Freedom Party partly to thank for its comfortable victory, which it triumphantly pointed out was in the area where Ernie Jacobson, the New National Party leader on the Tshwane council, lives.
The result comes on the back of the appointment of two DA members to the KwaZulu-Natal cabinet by IFP Premier Lionel Mtshali.
Another recent IFP boost for the DA was their joint move to dissolve the KwaZulu-Natal legislature, forcing the ANC to drop a controversial clause from a national law allowing floor-crossing in the provinces.
Last year, when the DA lost a by-election in Bethal to the tiny Freedom Front, it conspicuously did not hold a press conference — despite holding more media events than all other political parties combined.
The party lost about 300 councillors during the floor-crossing period when about half the NNP councillors elected under a DA ticket in 2000 returned to their previous home. It was also muddied by the Jurgen Harksen party funding imbroglio.
The DA pushed its share of the Tshwane vote from 56,65% in 2000 to 69,47% (3 237 votes).
The election attracted significantly fewer voters — 28,24% of the electorate compared with 54,61% — but had the highest poll of the six recent by-elections. The ANC retained a seat in ward 60 of Johannesburg on a 2,2% poll.
The DA victory was mirrored by the performance of the IFP in KwaZulu-Natal. It held a ward in Umlalazi (Eshowe) where it pushed its percentage of the vote from 85,5% in 2000 to 91,95% (955 votes). The ANC received 8,05% of the vote (84 votes) compared with 12% last time.
In addition to its poorer showing in Eshowe, the ANC won 71,3% (786 votes) in Rustenburg, down from 79,1% in 2000. Standing for the first time, the DA achieved 25,6%.
In Nketoana (Reitz) ward eight, the ANC received 75,8% (401 votes) compared with 77,3% in 2000. The Pan Africanist Congress’s share climbed from 17,1% to 24,2% (128 votes).
In Maluti a Phofung (Qwa Qwa) the ANC received 82,4% (748 votes), compared with 85,5% three years ago. The IFP’s share grew from 6,99% to 17,5%. The DA which, in 2000, garnered 6,68%, stood back for the IFP on this occasion.
Other opposition parties which stood — including a variety of Christian parties and the United Democratic Movement — fared poorly. The UDM polled just six votes in the Johannesburg ward.