Beckham: Now or never

It was the moment that Madrid’s football-crazy females had been waiting for. As Manchester United’s players emerged from their hotel, a gaggle of girls surged forward, desperate for a photograph of David Beckham.

And at the front of the pack, camera in hand, was the glamorous wife of a Real Madrid star.

You wouldn’t think United had just been beaten 3-1 at the Bernabau stadium, or been taught an almost humiliating lesson in showmanship by Zinedine Zidane, Raul and Luis Figo.

But even in a city of footballing giants, there’s something about Beckham. England’s tousle-haired captain is hot in Spain. Hot in the Far East, where he is easily Europe’s best-known footballer. Even hot in the United States, where tickets for a Manchester United tour this year were snapped up in days.

Nobody is better placed to appreciate the potential of Beckham’s celebrity than Jorge Valdano, Real Madrid’s commercially minded sporting director. When Valdano splurged another £30-million of his club’s money on Ronaldo last year, the deal was justified most of all as a sound business investment. Never mind that he was World Player of the Year, and capable of such dazzling goal-scoring feats as were on show at Old Trafford last Wednesday. Ronaldo, it was proclaimed, would soon earn the money back from replica-shirt sales.

In fact, that was a bit of an exaggeration: about half a million replicas of the Brazilian forward’s lily-white shirt were shifted, generating £15-million of revenue.

But more is at stake, of course, than merchandising. What Real Madrid are fighting for is a big share of the potentially multibillion-pound global TV audiences of the twenty-first century. Ronaldo cemented the club’s reputation in Latin America; and Beckham (apparently) will give it a foothold in the crucial ’emerging markets” of Japan, China, south-east Asia and the US.

Real have one credible rival in this quest for world domination: Manchester United. So Valdano and Florentino Perez, Real’s ambitious president, can be sure of one thing: if they want Beckham, they are going to have to reach deep into their pockets.

The £38-million transfer allegedly agreed between the two clubs may not be fanciful. But it is not just a matter of paying United. The midfielder’s own demands are sure to make Real’s bean-counters sweat.

He will have to be the highest-paid player at the Bernabau. Since renewing his contract with United last year, most estimates put Beckham’s wages at more than £80 000 a week. Real will be obliged to offer a rise, putting him ahead of Zidane, Raul, Figo and Ronaldo in the league table of wages.

And that is only the start. Beckham designs trendy teenwear for Marks & Spencer, who call him a ‘priceless asset”. He fronts TV ads for Vodafone, who have credited him with rebuilding their market share in Britain. Along with George Clooney, the Hollywood actor, he models Police sunglasses. Brylcreem, Pepsi, Castrol, Adidas …

Beckham earns at least double his football wages from celebrity endorsements. In other words, he knows his own marketing worth, and will demand that Madrid compensate him accordingly.

When negotiating his last contract with United, talks nearly broke down over Beckham’s hard-nosed valuation of his image rights. His agent, Tony Stephens, is said to be nearing retirement, but, like all A-list celebrities, Beckham is surrounded by an army of advisers — not least his wife, Victoria, who is no slouch herself when it comes to publicity.

Whether Beckham moves to Madrid hinges above all on a simple question: is it worth it for Beckham? It’s as much a financial question as a footballing one. Over the past few weeks he has been unfavourably compared with Luis Figo, the Portuguese ace currently occupying the right-side berth in Real’s midfield. If Beckham’s star shines less brightly amid the galaxy of talent at Madrid, how might that affect the money-spinning endorsements?

Ahead of Real’s two-leg Champions League clash with United, a Real official said: ‘The women like him more than we do.” The remark was a pre-match wind-up, but Beckham will need convincing that Real really value him as a player.

It is true, of course, that women love him. In that sense, he has the upper hand over Ronaldo.

But it’s young men — from pre-teen to early twenties — who are Beckham’s most important target market. Teenage boys buy the Beckham clothes range; their older brothers buy Police shades.

Young men respect Beckham for his good looks more than many would care to admit, but his credibility as a male icon still depends largely on his footballing prowess. He cannot afford to look ordinary on the pitch. But in Madrid Beckham will not find it easy even to make the starting line-up.

Even if he thrives in Spain — and, crucially, keeps the England captaincy — leaving British shores would inevitably lower his United Kingdom profile. That may not matter, since Posh and Becks would make great Euro-celebs. A journalist at Hello! told The Observer that their arrival in Madrid would excite Eduardo Sanchez Junco, the magazine’s Spanish owner, ‘because they are the right people”.

Without regular access to the Beckhams, though, Britain’s tabloids are bound to start looking for a new golden couple. ‘And Beckham is never going to be as big a star in Spain as he is in Britain,” says John Moore, a football business analyst at Bell Lawrie White, a City firm. ‘Just look what happened when Gary Lineker went to Barcelona, or when Paul Gascoigne joined Lazio. One moment they were huge in Britain, the next they were almost forgotten. And the less Beckham is in the public eye, the less the advertisers will want him.”

Moving to Spain would probably force Beckham to rearrange his lucrative advertising deals. Castrol’s Beckham campaign was aimed at the Asian market, and his Police adverts have gone down well abroad. But Marks & Spencer do little business on the Continent.

And Vodafone, most of all, will be desperate not to see him go. The cellphone company has big operations across Europe, but would not be happy to see Siemens, Real’s sponsor and a major rival, emblazoned across Beckham’s chest every week. Besides, Vodafone also have a £30-million sponsorship deal with Manchester United.

Marketing is a complex business and, in the minds of the buying public, Beckham’s fortunes are inextricably intertwined with United’s.

Note that phrase: the buying public. José Sanchez, Madrid’s marketing chief, has predicted that many of United’s Asian supporters will follow Beckham to Madrid. That may be true, but at the moment the Asian market is not worth more than a few million pounds a year to either Real or United. Losing Beckham would certainly not cost United £100-million in spin-off sales, as was claimed last week. By the time fans in Malaysia or Vietnam have that kind of purchasing power, Beckham will be long retired.

Building up following in Asia and the US is a long-term game and United might have made the calculation that they can find more Beckhams. Besides, says Moore, they already have a commanding lead over Real. ‘In Asia, United have moved very shrewdly, finding local partners to sell their merchandise and broadcasting rights and spending very little of their own money. In America, they have a sponsorship deal with Nike and a marketing alliance with the New York Yankees baseball team.

‘By contrast, Real’s approach has been slapdash. To be honest, they don’t have the expertise. They haven’t marketed Ronaldo and Zidane very well. They probably wouldn’t make the most of Beckham either. If they want to write out another fat cheque for United, their biggest long-term rival, they’re welcome.”

Moore believes that Old Trafford’s famously scrupulous accountants will not be able to resist an offer worth more than a year’s profits.

‘Thirty-eight million is an enormous sum, especially when you consider today’s depressed transfer market. To put it in perspective — you could buy control of Chelsea, Leeds United and Celtic for that money, and still have change.”

Even if Sir Alex Ferguson would prefer to keep Beckham, Manchester United’s directors have a duty to get best value for their shareholders. Beckham has two years left on his contract, after which he can walk away for nothing. If they are

going to sell him, it must be now. —