Five months of unrest in the Ivory Coast have taken their toll on the quality and quantity of cocoa exports from the world’s biggest producer, and experts warn that the full impact has yet to be felt.
Experts say that the extent of the damage inflicted on Ivorian cocoa production by the crisis gripping the west African country is so far difficult to quantify.
”You’re not going to have a full picture before the end of the season,” said Andy Holt, analyst at the Ed and F Man brokerage firm.
But concerns are already mounting about the quality of the crop in the wake of the bloody uprising that began in September in Ivory Coast, which produces about 40% of the world’s cocoa supplies.
”The crop is being rushed out. People are trying to get it on ships a lot quicker so they do not get stuck in the ports,” said Holt.
”The farmers in the country are also trying to get the crop down to the port quicker, which means in terms of quality that cocoa beans are not being left out to dry in the sun for as long as usual, so the moisture content might be higher so we are likely to get bad quality,” he added.
Cocoa beans are picked twice a year in Ivory Coast. The main harvest runs from October to March, providing more than 80% of the annual crop, which was 1,2-million tons in the 2001/02 season.
A smaller harvest takes place between May and June, which typically garners between 150 000 and 200 000 tons of cocoa beans.
Ivorian analysts estimate that the main harvest could amount to 950 000 tons this year, against roughly one million on average. Experts in London have a slightly lower forecast, though they say they are struggling to put a figure on the expected harvest.
”It’s hard to send a statistician to such a dangerous region, but we estimate that cocoa shipments amounted to about 850 000 tons by the end of January,” said one expert, who asked not to be named.
”That’s 30 000 to 40 000 tons less than last year over the same period,” he added.
According to local experts in Ivory Coast, 650 000 tons of cocoa have left the country from the current harvest, mainly through the port of San Pedro in the southwest of the country. Standard Chartered analyst Abah Ofon says cocoa shipments have been relatively undisrupted despite the crisis thanks to a stong network of big importers like Ed and F Man.
The intermediaries in the supply chain are forced to cross the bush to buy cocoa beans from the plantations, but the bloody conflict makes their job dangerous and difficult.
Several cocoa-producing areas have been occupied by rebels, forcing producers to cross roadblocks to get their beans to the exporters.
Adding to their problems, the rains, instead of coming at the usual time in September, fell in October, when the cocoa harvest had already begun. ”It is more a quality (than quantity) problem at the moment,” said Holt.
”People still buy it because they need to, but they buy it
cheaper. The quality problem will be obvious only when the ships arrive in the European ports and not when they leave,” he added.
The crisis is also expected to have a longer-term impact on Ivorian cocoa production. Ivorian cocoa beans grow on trees which are as much as 20 years old and in need of fertiliser and pesticides to flourish, analysts say.
But the conflict means that growers are no longer investing enough in the maintenance of the plantations, preferring to keep their money to buy food and clothes, the prices of which have been driven up by the crisis.
”In these conditions, the current conflict marks perhaps the start of a decline in Ivorian production,” the unnamed analyst warned. – Sapa-AFP