In a week of high defection drama, the African National Congress has emerged the clear winner, while the Democratic Alliance won the race among opposition parties.
Both the United Democratic Movement and the New National Party have been decimated; two parties — the Federal Alliance and Afrikaner Eenheidsbeweging — will be deregistered because they have lost their seats; and six new single-personality parties hit the political radar screen.
On the eve of the closure of the 15-day floor-crossing period, the ANC secured a very comfortable two-thirds majority in Parliament through the wholesale defection of nine UDM MPs, including all its parliamentary office-bearers.
The defections also mean the ANC can take control of all nine provinces if it wants. The Western Cape fell early and KwaZulu-Natal seemed set to achieve a full provincial hand for the ANC as the scramble to defect went down to the wire.
In the Western Cape, the ruling party pledged to stick with the ANC-NNP cooperation pact, leaving Marthinus van Schalkwyk to wear his premiership crown, at least until the 2004 election.
The ANC has welcomed the defectors, in line with its belief that a post-apartheid South Africa is better served by a buy-in rather than feisty opposition. It will ”reward” Van Schalkwyk for his support. In Kwazulu-Natal, the internecine politicking between the ANC and the ruling Inkatha Freedom Party continued until just before the expiry of the window period.
Eight months after the ANC’s first attempt to gain control failed because the five defectors it recruited crossed too early, ruling-party hawks made another bid for control of the kingdom.
The ANC and its allies are expected to hold the balance of power in KwaZulu-Natal by the end of this week. However, the party is unlikely to take the province’s premiership yet.
ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe said: ”Should the ANC get a majority, we will discuss whether it should take control of the province.”
No doubt, the party will use its hand to try and bring its IFP partner in line. By the time the Mail & Guardian went to print yesterday, party insiders said two members of the IFP in the KwaZulu-Natal legislature were likely to defect to the ANC by midnight on Friday.
This would give the ANC a majority. It would be the ”the worst outcome and a very unsatisfactory situation” if the power balance in the opposition provinces changed through the defections, said Centre for Policy Studies researcher Steven Friedman.
In essence, the opposition, always in shards, has been further splintered with the formation of a bouquet of baby parties and the slashing of established ones. While the DA is runner-up among the gainers, splintering of the opposition is not good for its current political raison d’être: to shore up the white vote.
The official opposition lost its grip when the NNP split to enter a pact with the ANC. Racial polarisation will increase in the run-up to the 2004 election.
The IFP may yet emerge the game breaker, especially if it ratchets up its flirtation with the DA ahead of next year’s elections. The IFP is contemplating an electoral front with the DA and other smaller parties to cut into the ANC majority in 2004.
The jury is out on whether the six new political parties can pull it off at the polls. But all claim that a plethora of experts, advisers and financial backers are ready to assist the six go-it-aloners.
They will need all the help they can get to make a mark on the national stage, with barely 12 months to go before the next general election. It is relatively easy to get on to the ballot paper.
Fifty signatures, R500 and registration with the Independent Electoral Commission is all that is needed, but getting voters to make an X next to that name is an altogether more difficult task.
A single seat requires between 45 000 and 50 000 votes. And it is a task political analyst Adam Habib of the University of Natal says is very dicey. He cautions that political parties take a long time to be built and become rooted among voters. Parties are expensive animals to run; factions develop quickly as turf is claimed and it is difficult to keep them together as they grow larger.
While some politicians like Patricia de Lille may be able to generate support on the basis of her credibility, others are certain to disappear, believes Habib. As UDM leader Bantu Holomisa is finding out, it takes more than force of personality to sustain a political party.
By Thursday the UDM was set to lose its status as official opposition in the Eastern Cape, where in addition to one MPL who crossed to the DA, a handful of others were contemplating their career futures.
The rise of the one man (and woman) show
Patricia de Lille
Independent Democrats
From: Pan Africanist Congress
Support base: Expected to trade on her credibility as a no-nonsense politician. She ranks among the 20 most popular politicians, says a November MarkData Omnibus survey. With potential national support, the party will contest elections in all provinces and nationally.
Policies: Still being formulated. A framework document centres on a mixed, open economy with strong social security; accountable, effective government based on democratic principles rather than political dogma; closing the poverty gap and redressing key social ills such as HIV/Aids and unemployment. 2004 electoral prospects: Almost certain to regain her parliamentary seat; expects to gain between 5% and 10% of the vote, or about 20 seats.
Cassie Aucamp
Nasionale Aksie/National Action
From: Afrikaner Eenheidsbeweging
Support base: Afrikaners, particularly the youth, who want to be part of mainstream politics.
Principles: Christian; minority rights focus. Has attracted support from several former Afrikaner MPs and academics. Formed in June 2002; claims 50 branches. Based predominantly in Gauteng, Limpopo and North West. Policies: Supports phasing out of affirmative action and implementation of group rights. Endorses market-driven economy and trade. National priorities identified as low economic growth, unemployment, crime and HIV/Aids.
2004 electoral prospects: Likely to return to Parliament and confident that he will bring a team with him.
Bantu Holomisa
United Democratic Movement
Still with the UDM, but lost out to the African National Congress with the defection of nine MPs. Support base: Shaken, as the party appears in disarray at grassroots level, with the defection to the ANC last month of key Western Cape officials representing almost 20 branches; formed by Holomisa after his expulsion from the ANC and styled as ”the political home of all South Africans”, the UDM received 3,4%, or 400 000 ballots, of the national vote in 1999. Policies: Fairly standard — market economy, good governance and individual rights. Has opposed the arms deal, arguing that the money should have been used for jobs and anti-retroviral treatment.
2004 electoral prospects: Tough battle ahead, especially in his Eastern Cape stronghold. He should return to Parliament.
Peter Marais
New Labour Party
From: New National Party
Support base: As the self-styled voice of coloured nationalism and the poor, it is aimed predominantly at coloured communities on the Cape Flats but also elsewhere in the Western Cape; has already obtained support from the Middle Party, which has a seat in the Cape Town unicity. Marais claims support from a range of public figures and is also likely to receive support from revivalist pastors. Policies: Have not yet been completed because the party will be formally launched only within the four-month window period that ends in July. Policies are likely to be Christian nationalist. What will its stand be on corruption? 2004 electoral prospects: Unlikely to have any influence beyond the Western Cape.
Nelson Ramodike
Alliance for Democracy and Prosperity
From: United Democratic Movement
Support base: Difficult to quantify, but unlikely to extend beyond his home province of Limpopo; has signed up 25 traditional leaders and claims to have prominent financial backers; will contest the 2004 elections in Limpopo and align the party with a bigger one at national level. Policies: Still being formulated; expected to be based on free-market economics with a focus on job creation, poverty alleviation and anti-crime measures. 2004 electoral prospects: Unlikely to return to Parliament, but may secure a provincial seat in Limpopo.
Theresa Millin
African Independent Movement
From: Inkatha Freedom Party
Support base: Unknown, but aims to be a voice of the ”taxpaying middle class”; was transferred to Parliament by the IFP to minimise the risk of her defection, leading to a shift of the power balance
in KwaZulu-Natal from the IFP to the ANC.
Policies: None, but plans to talk to the ”average” South African. 2004 electoral prospects: Dream on.
Jan Slabbert
Peace and Development Party
From: Inkatha Freedom Party
Support base: White farmers — used to be mayor of Vryheid in KwaZulu-Natal. He left the IFP after being redeployed to the province from national Parliament in March without consultation.
Policies: Scant. He talks only about pursuing ”peace and development” in a province torn by ”one-upmanship and brinkmanship”. 2004 electoral prospects: Dream on. — Marianne Merten
[email protected]
Additional reporting by Jaspreet Kindra [email protected]