The failure of Swaziland’s pro-democracy movement to mount a major anti-government protest this week as promised, has political observers wondering whether the domestic opposition has the muscle to effectively promote political reform.
“Swaziland is increasingly perceived by the world as a nation in need of real democratisation, but our pro-democracy groups have failed to capitalise on this,” said Thobile Mngomezulu, a political science student at the University of Swaziland.
This month marks the 30th anniversary of a decree by King Sobhuza II banning political opposition to royal rule, including political parties and meetings. Sobhuza assumed government powers for himself and his descendants, and inaugurated a national army to help police the state of emergency.
Announcing its 2003 action plan in January, the Swaziland Democratic Alliance promised the “Mother of All Demonstrations” to mark the 12 April anniversary of the 1973 Decree. The alliance is led by labour unions and banned political groups.
“All the elements were in place for a significant event: the milestone anniversary, and increasing authoritarian acts on government’s part that were condemned internationally as undemocratic,” said a disappointed John Dube, a member of the banned political party, the Ngwane National Liberatory Congress (NNLC).
“The information minister just announced a crackdown on the media. Lawyers were striking against government-appointed judges. The king didn’t deliver a promised new constitution.”
But no big demonstrations occurred or were even planned for the capital Mbabane, or the kingdom’s most populous urban centre Manzini. At the weekend, police dispersed a truckload of young demonstrators at the southern border post of Lavumisa. About 20 people were detained, though no arrests were made, according to the Royal Swaziland Police Force.
“Swaziland’s State of Emergency is probably the longest in history. It belongs in the Guinness Book of World Records. But the progressive groups could do nothing with this important anniversary,” noted the independent Times of Swaziland newspaper.
Other commentators suggested the lack of activity was symptomatic of disarray in the political opposition to King Mswati III’s rule. The most common complaint is that opposition groups have failed to demonstrate a wide popular following among Swazis, 80 percent of whom live as subsistence farmers under chiefs on communal land.
Secondly, analysts say, no charismatic leader has emerged as an alternative to King Mswati, who, even his critics concede, is held in high esteem by nearly all Swazis.
The progressive groups have also been faulted for failing to produce a plan of action, or show an agenda beyond simply complaining about the monarchical system.
“I ask the leaders, like Mario Masuku, the president of Pudemo [People’s United Democratic Movement], and Obed Dlamini, the president of the NNLC, if they have 14 names of people who could fill a cabinet if the opposition came to power, but they just look at me blankly,” said one Western diplomat.
Obed Dlamini, a former prime minister (1989-1993) who infuriated the palace by going over to the pro-democracy movement, said last year: “We have thousands of card-carrying members, but they have to be quiet because they are breaking the law by being members. We’d have 10 000 new members tomorrow if the ban on political parties were lifted.”
Political observers counter that the palace has no incentive to lift the political party ban without pressure, and a silent underground of dissidents offers none.
“People are afraid of the security forces. They see how the police beat people, and they are justifiably fearful,” Pudemo’s Masuku said, explaining the small turnouts at marches.
But media commentators have pointed out that in South Africa and other places where oppressed people rose up against authoritarian regimes, the state security apparatus and bans on demonstrations did not prevent large-scale protest action.
If the Swaziland Democratic Alliance is proving ineffective in persuading government towards political reform, a new group, the Swaziland Coalition of Concerned Civil Organisations, has emerged as a potential pressure group. Made up of business and legal bodies, the coalition seeks democratic change as a way to ensure a stable nation for investment and the equitable sharing of Swazi wealth.
However, the government is cracking down on the legal profession, having purged the court system of judges whose rulings run counter to palace interests. The justice ministry is also challenging the citizenship of Paul Shilubane, president of the Swaziland Law Society, a coalition-member organisation. – Irin