/ 23 April 2003

Key test looms for SA’s major parties

Eight municipal by-elections take place on Wednesday May 7 which will test the mettle of South Africa’s three major political parties — the African National Congress (ANC), the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). The ANC has already won two seats uncontested.

Perhaps the most critical in determining coloured support for the ANC and DA is one in Grassy Park — Ward 67 of the Cape Town metropolitan council.

It is in this seat that Basil Edward Lee of the DA is standing against the ANC’s Lorraine Jacobs in an area which was traditional ground for the New National Party (NNP).

But the NNP is not standing in the wake of its poor performance in a recent by-election in Swellendam where the DA won a narrow victory over the ANC, with the NNP coming in third.

Although the African Christian Democratic Party (ACDP) and the Universal Party are both standing, the contest is understood to be a battle between the DA and the ANC.

In the 2000 municipal election nationwide the DA – which then consisted of the Democratic Party and the NNP — received 59,2% or 3 395 votes. The ANC gained 1 550 votes or 27% with the ACDP at 9,58% or 549 votes.

A loss of the seat by the DA would be a major obstacle in its claims that it could wrest control back of the city in 2005 — the next general municipal election. The DA lost control of the city during political defections by NNP-supporting councillors in October last year.

The ANC won a seat unopposed in ward 18, Breede Valley (Worcester) and another by-election unopposed in Griquatown ward 3 (Siyancuma).

The ANC is likely to sweep to victory in ward 18 at Sol Plaatje (Kimberley) where it is standing against the Azanian People’s Organisation. In 2000 it received 94% of the vote.

The IFP is likely to retain the seat at Umlalazi ward 10 (Eshowe), one of its support heartlands, where it received 74% of the vote in 2000. It is standing as in 2000, against the ANC, when the ANC received 25%.

A tighter race is expected in Umhlathuze ward 15 (Richard’s Bay) where the IFP won 52,4% of the vote in 2000 against the ANC’s 46,4%. The IFP can be assured of victory at ward 11 Umvoti (Greytown) where it received 78,6% of the vote in 2000 against an independent’s 14,25% with the ANC coming in with 6,9%. Only the IFP and ANC are standing on May 7.

In Mkhambathini (Camperdown) Ward four, the ANC is likely to easily retain the seat against the DA and IFP. Last time it received 72% to the DA’s 16,7% and the IFP’s 11%.

At Ward 4 Mooi River (Mpofana) the IFP looks set to retain the seat having achieved 50% in 2000 to the ANC’s 27%. With the DA standing down the IFP vote may be boosted — the DA received just short of 10% in the ward in 2000.

In ward 57 of the great Johannesburg metropolitan council, the DA is expected to retain the seat having achieved 63,5% of the vote in 2000. The ANC gained 32,4%. Last time the ACDP did not stand. – I-Net Bridge