Zim: Calm before the storm

The diplomatic quiet three weeks after the African troika’s visit to Harare is seen by Zimbabwe watchers as the calm before the storm.

”If we were not sure that Zimbabwe is into its endgame, you would be hearing a lot more disappointment,” said a Western ambassador.

”There is nothing worse than being let down after having your hopes raised — worse still after raising the expectation in your capital. Remember the aftermath of the Rubicon speech in South Africa.

”Luckily for presidents Thabo Mbeki, Olusegun Obasanjo and Bakili Muluzi, events in Zimbabwe seem to have overtaken their initiative. Perhaps they will claim sometime in the future that they caused this change. They will have to do something like that because they certainly did lead us to expect some movement soon.”

There was overt criticism of the troika this week from Zambia’s Deputy Finance Minister, Mbita Chitala, who reportedly told journalists the presidents were not putting enough pressure on the Zanu-PF government to adopt policies that would revive the economy.

Chitala’s interest is obvious. Zimbabwe’s slide into oblivion is hurting the whole region.

Like a lock forward under pressure, President Robert Mugabe sought the support of the pack at Obasanjo’s inauguration as African Union leader in Abuja this week.

Diplomats here insist that he will not be made excessively comfortable.

”His fellow presidents will ask when he is going,” said a European envoy from Harare. ”They could not get an answer from him when he was here three weeks ago, but Mugabe has been talking about leaving ever since then.

”South Africa and Nigeria will be particularly concerned over who will succeed [him]. They want him either to name someone or to have the party do so. I think they realise, as we do, that if he doesn’t move quickly, events will overtake him.”

Professor Tony Hawkins told a security seminar at Pretoria University this week that ”Zimbabwe is on the edge of the volcano. One push could bring the government down within months, if not weeks.”

Western diplomats say opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai looks increasingly like the man most likely to achieve this. Tsvangirai greatly impressed G8 ambassadors whom he met in Harare this week.

”Tsvangirai was organised, motivated and determined, which he clearly was not a year ago,” said one of the envoys. ”He was excessively concerned then about the welfare of his followers — and probably overestimated the repressive capacity of the government forces.”

Tsvangirai, having repeatedly demonstrated his ability to bring the country to a standstill, is now rejecting any talks about entering into a government with Mugabe.

He told the ambassador in Harare that Mugabe simply had to negotiate his exit. ”We don’t know if South Africa has prepared for this eventuality,” said a veteran diplomat in Pretoria.

”We are all very sensitive to the notion of African solutions to African problems. We expect to be reminded of this after the presidents’ meeting in Abuja.

”But African solutions are as fraught and fallible as any others — we only have to look at the Democratic Republic of Congo to see this.

”We would like to see a speedy solution in Zimbabwe. Estimates of economic recovery time after a change of government there range from two to five years, so we have no time to play with.

”We believe South Africa will inevitably continue to exert enormous influence across the Limpopo river. That is why we are pleased that the Harare meeting at least served to improve relations between Mbeki and Tsvangirai.”

Developments in the Commonwealth further reflected the conviction that Mugabe is on his way out.

After a meeting of the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group (CMAG) — the body that Mbeki helped set up to address problem areas within the club of former British colonies —Zimbabwe’s suspension was extended until the Commonwealth heads of government summit in December.

Commonwealth Secretary General Don McKinnon acknowledged that this went against the express wishes of Mbeki and Obasanjo, who had wanted the suspension to end in April.

They did not even want to discuss the matter with Australian Prime Minister John Howard, who had joined them in imposing the suspension a year earlier.

Australia kept the pressure on by presenting CMAG with a dossier of human rights violations in Zimbabwe. ”The broad view is that Zimbabwe’s suspension should be sustained,” said McKinnon.

”This did not meet with everyone’s best wish. But it is the best decision we could get. We don’t want to see the Commonwealth divided over this.”

A Commonwealth high commissioner added: ”Given that Zimbabwe has, over the years probably been the most divisive issue that the Commonwealth has had to deal with, we wonder how the secretary general can say this. The answer is that like many of us he does not believe Mugabe will be at the Commonwealth summit in December.”