Amid growing fears in America, Europe and Russia that Iran could develop an atomic bomb within the next few years, United Nations officials meet today to try to decide how to tackle the threat of nuclear proliferation in the Middle East.
The International Atomic Energy Agency is under strong pressure from the United States to accuse Tehran of non-compliance with its obligations under the 1970 nuclear non-proliferation treaty. However, the UN watchdog’s 35-strong board is likely to opt for a milder reprimand in order to keep diplomatic channels with Iran open.
A ”non-compliance” declaration would entail reporting Iran to the UN security council and could trigger sanctions and isolation. Instead, according to a leaked report to the meeting by the IAEA chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, the meeting will conclude that Iran has ”failed in its obligations” to report its nuclear activities to the watchdog.
Washington insists that Iran is engaged in a clandestine nuclear weapons project. Initial scepticism in Europe and Russia about hawkish US claims has given way in recent months to suspicions about Tehran’s activities.
The Iranians imported small amounts of uranium from China in 1991. They failed to report this to the Vienna-based IAEA, declined to say what they were doing with the nuclear material and omitted to disclose how and where it was being stored.
At Natanz, 320 kilometres south of Tehran, the Iranians have built an underground pilot complex of centrifuges for enriching uranium, and plan to build a much bigger system of 5 000 centrifuges which could be operational within two years and which, say US officials and international atomic experts, could lead to an Iranian bomb by 2006.
Dr ElBaradei was the first outsider to be given access to the Natanz operation in February. He was said to be stunned by its sophistication.
”It’s clear the Iranians have mastered the [uranium] enrichment technology which puts them in a [nuclear] club of 10,” said a well-connected diplomat in Vienna.
UN inspectors flew to Tehran at the weekend, hoping to be able to take samples at Iranian sites. Last week, another team of three IAEA inspectors was barred from taking swabs of environmental samples at the Kalaye electricity plant in Tehran where centrifuge components have been built and tested. The samples would have revealed whether the testing was conducted with nuclear material, in breach of Iran’s international obligations. The suspicion is that the Kalaye plant has been used illicitly to enrich a small amount of uranium.
The inspectors, according to a diplomatic source in Vienna, ”need access to other places to take samples and to see if they’ve been playing around with enrichment of nuclear materials that haven’t been declared. They say they haven’t, but that stretches credibility.”
Given the rising international anxiety, the key IAEA demand is that Iran sign up for a more transparent regime of snap inspections, allowing IAEA teams to go anywhere, any time, at 24 hours notice — an operation similar to that performed by the UN arms inspectors in Iraq.
In Brussels today, the European Union will step up the international pressure by linking an EU-Iran trade deal to progress on answering the nuclear questions, and calling on Tehran to agree to the snap inspections ”urgently and unconditionally”.
Russia, which has traditionally pooh-poohed allegations of an Iranian bomb project, is also now voicing concern. Russia is the sole supplier of nuclear technology and expertise to Iran and is helping to build an atomic power plant at Bushehr in the south. Given its influence, Moscow is in a strong position to persuade the Iranians to accept the snap inspections, say western diplomats.
Despite the international pressure, however, Iran appears determined to press ahead with its ambitious nuclear programme in an attempt to pre-empt any US moves to secure ”regime change”.
Deterrent
Iran is anxious about growing American military power in the region and Washington’s tough rhetoric, and sees the nuclear programme as a possible deterrent.
Sayeed Leylaz, a senior analyst at Sharif University in Tehran, said: ”Iraq’s experience shows that nothing can stop a US attack if that’s what Washington wants. But North Korea’s experience shows that maybe one thing can stop the United States — the threat of an atomic bomb.”
Iran is also seeking to use the negotiations over snap inspections to get US-led sanctions lifted. Kamal Kharrazi, Tehran’s foreign minister, said recently: ”If all the sanctions, pressures and restrictions against Iran are lifted and nuclear technology for peaceful purposes is put at its disposal, Iran will sign the [inspections] protocol.”
In the meantime, as Washington ratchets up the pressure, Iran believes that agreeing to more elaborate inspections would be tantamount to capitulation. Leylaz said: ”The more we withdraw from our plans and the more concessions we offer, the more arrogant the US will be.”
The Iranians also argue that they are living in a dangerous region, and point to India’s, Pakistan’s, and Israel’s possession of nuclear arsenals, as well as the former Iraqi regime’s clandestine bomb project that was well-advanced until thwarted by the international community.
Unlike North Korea, Iran is not believed to possess nuclear weapons and it has yet to be found in violation of the 1970 non-proliferation treaty, which it has signed.
However, western governments suspect that Iran may have received crucial technical advice for a weapons programme from experts in Pakistan, Russia or other former Soviet states and may no longer require outside assistance.
To allay Washington’s concerns, Moscow promised it would provide all the nuclear fuel needed for the Bushehr plant and then transport spent fuel back to Russia to prevent it from being diverted for weapons purposes.
But despite years of negotiations, the agreement on the repatriation of spent fuel is not yet concluded. And to Russia’s embarrassment, Iran announced earlier this year that it would mine and enrich its own uranium and manage the entire fuel cycle, including spent nuclear material, meaning it could produce weapons-grade uranium and plutonium.
Tehran says it needs to secure its own fuel supply because it plans to build several new plants over the next 20 years. But arms-control experts argue that even if it does construct more nuclear plants, buying fuel commercially from foreign suppliers is much cheaper and simpler. – Guardian Unlimited Â