Voter lack of interest is bogging down opposition voters more than supporters of the governing African National Congress, according to a poll by Markinor.
In the poll, commissioned by the South African Broadcasting Corporation, of 3 500 voters across the country, the African National Congress gets the support of 60% (it got 66,3% of the vote in 1999) but nearly 70% of its supporters are either very interested or just somewhat interested in politics and elections (22% very interested and 47% somewhat interested). Altogether 29% of its voters are not interested.
In contrast, the official opposition gets 10% support (compared to 9,5% in the last election) but only 56% are either very interested or just somewhat interested (12% and 44% respectively). A significant 42% are not interested.
The New National party, which the poll predicts can expect 5% of the vote (down from 6,8% in 1999), has a bigger perception problem, with only nine percent very interested and 38% somewhat interested — a combined 47%. A whopping 53% are not interested in politics or elections.
While opinion polls reflecting Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) sentiment are notoriously inaccurate — given the rural basis of its KwaZulu-Natal constituency — the poll shows it also has perception problems among its supporters.
According to the poll the IFP will receive 4% of the vote (down from 8,5% in 1999). Only 15% of its supporters are highly committed to politics while 35% are somewhat interested. A large 47% are not interested, according to the poll.
The United Democratic Movement could expect 3% of the vote (it received 3,4% in 1999) with 14% of its voters showing high levels of interest in politics and elections and 58% some interest. Altogether 28% are not interested.
The Freedom Front can expect one percent of the vote (it received 0,8% in 1999) with 20% of its supporters highly committed to politics and 25% showing some interest. A whopping 55% are not interested.
The Pan Africanist Congress can also expect one percent of the vote (it received 0,71% in 1999), according to the poll, with 24% of its support highly committed and 39% showing some interest. A reasonably high 37% are not that interested.
The poll was formulated before the formation of new political parties — including Patricia de Lille’s Independent Democrats — which are expected to fight the next national election scheduled for 2004. – I-Net Bridge