South Africa recorded a trade surplus of R3,301-billion for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union (SACU) trading partners in June, according to the latest Customs & Excise figures released on Thursday. This compared with a surplus of R3,2-billion rand in May.
This brought the cumulative trade surplus to R12,503-billion for the year to date compared with R23,605-billion in the first six months of 2002.
South Africa was expected to have recorded a trade surplus of R1-billion in June, according to the consensus from an I-Net Bridge survey of 10 private sector economists. The range of the survey was very wide, from a zero balance to a surplus of R3-billion.
The following are economists’ reactions to the data:
Michael Keenan, market analyst at MMS International: “It’s much the same as we saw last month — a surprisingly high number again in the face of a strong rand. Although these numbers are somewhat hazy at the best of times, it does suggest that global demand is picking up, and coupled with that you’ve got the rand promoting the purchase of foreign goods abroad. But nonetheless these numbers do concur with what (Reserve Bank Governor Tito) Mbweni said a while ago that we’re going to move back into current account surplus in Q2. The markets aren’t likely to respond to the numbers, however.”
Mike Schussler, economist at Tradek: “This is an extremely good figure and at the end of the day it might be good for the rand. This is a second month in a row that we are recording a huge surplus, but I think we need to realise that from now on the trade surplus will get smaller.”
Magan Mistry, economist at NIB: “I think exports volumes are likely to come under pressure due to weaker global demand and equally imports are likely to be follow suit because of slow local demand. We should see a smaller surplus in the next few months and as a result the current account is likely to record a small deficit.”
Matthys Strauss, economist at Absa Bank: “The trade data continues to be a pleasant surprise. The rand is likely to show a small rally on the surprisingly good figures.” – I-Net Bridge