/ 24 October 2003

Iran’s big nuclear climbdown

Iran this week bowed to international pressure over its nuclear programme and agreed to suspend uranium enrichment activities, in a painful compromise deal negotiated with Britain, France and Germany.

In an abrupt climbdown, the Islamic republic dropped its earlier refusal to suspend uranium enrichment efforts and pledged to allow short-notice United Nations inspections, in a joint communique agreed with the three European foreign ministers.

With a UN deadline of October 31 looming, Iran appeared anxious to defuse Western concern over its nuclear ambitions and avert the possibility of UN Security Council action.

The deal came only 10 days before the expiry of a deadline imposed by the UN’s nuclear watchdow, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), requiring Iran to prove it has no weapons programme. If it fails to comply, the Security Council would consider sanctions.

European diplomats said the communique was encouraging, but that Iran would have to make good on its elaborate promises. ”We’ve learned to be cautious. That’s why we’re taking it step by step,” one diplomat said.

The final verdict on Iran’s nuclear programme will rest with the head of the IAEA, Mohammed el Baradei, who will issue a crucial report to the agency’s governing board next month. Fresh inspections by the agency are expected in the coming weeks, including visits to sensitive military sites previously blocked.

In a visit to Tehran last week El Baradei expressed cautious optimism about the proposed deal with Europe.

This week’s press conference presented an extraordinary scene in a country so often at odds with Western governments. European foreign ministers sat smiling alongside a senior figure in clerical robes, Hossan Rouhani, who for years has played a powerful behind-the-scenes role in Iran’s intelligence apparatus.

”We will temporarily suspend the uranium enrichment process from the date we will announce only to show good will and build confidence,” Rouhani said.

Rouhani, who officially serves as the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council but is not part of the elected government, has emerged as Iran’s authoritative negotiator. The reformist government led by President Mohammad Khatami was not even present for the crucial negotiating sessions, underlying its marginal status in Iran’s theocratic system.

The joint communique offered Iran a face-saving way of meeting the terms of the IAEA’s resolution without having to offer much concrete in return.

The three European governments offered a vague promise to provide eventual access to ”modern technology and supplies”, a euphemism for civilian nuclear technology and fuel. Iran has often complained that it has a right to nuclear technology under the non-proliferation treaty.

The deal was first proposed earlier this year in a letter from the three European governments, but only recently did the theocratic leadership chose to take up the offer. ”The October 31 deadline may have helped concentrate minds,” said a diplomat.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary, Jack Straw, and his French and German counterparts went to great lengths to emphasise that snap UN inspections would not threaten Iran’s national security or ”dignity”.

Iran has been accused by the United States of sponsoring terrorism and threatening stability in Iraq, and the nuclear issue could help to open a new stage in Tehran’s uneasy relations with the West. But first, the theocratic leadership will have to rein in hardline elements that oppose any reconciliation.

Analysts say the hardliners may need to be placated on other issues on the domestic front to win their support for the bitter pill they swallowed this week. — Â