This week African National Congress provincial structures wrapped up their selection of candidates for next year’s general elections.
The names of the candidates they chose will be sent to a meeting of the organisation’s national list committee — scheduled for November 21 and 22 — where they will be vetted to make sure that they meet the ANC’s criteria for holding public office. The committee will also have to make sure that every third candidate is a woman.
As many as six provincial premierships are up for grabs. In the Eastern Cape, national Deputy Minister of Finance Mandisi Mpahlwa is seen as a possible replacement for Premier Makhenkesi Stofile, who is said to have earned the ire of the ANC national leadership because of his seeming inability improve the efficiency of the provincial government.
National Deputy Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Rejoice Mabudafhasi could be a popular choice for the premiership of Limpopo, where Premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi is wrapping up his second and last term in office.
The Northern Cape is likely to settle for provincial minister of health Dipuo Peters, as outgoing premier Manne Dipico also completes his second term next year.
Mpumalanga and Free State are also expected to see a change at the top.
Mpumalanga minister of safety and security Thabang Makwetla is a favourite for the provincial premiership because of a strong feeling in the ANC national headquarters that current Premier Ndaweni Mahlangu has been a ”constant source of embarrassment” to the organisation. Mahlangu, most memorably, said soon after he first took office that it was all right for politicians to lie.
In the Free State, President Thabo Mbeki might consider replacing Premier Winkie Direko, who turns 74 next month, to give an opportunity to someone younger.
Limpopo
Current premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi (48) completes his second term as premier next year. Ramatlhodi, who is thought to have his eye on a Cabinet post, has worked hard to prove his value to the president. But if Mbeki passes him by yet again, Ramatlhodi is likely to head for the private sector or a law practice.
The capable Mabudafhasi, who hails from the province, is being punted as Ramatlhodi’s likely successor. She features at number 15 in the province’s list of candidates.
However, she might find herself up against former trade unionist John Nkadimeng, who served as South Africa’s ambassador to Cuba. There is a feeling that the province, which has had a history of infighting along ethnic lines, would be better off with a premier who does not hail from the provincial structures.
But provincial minister of health Sello Moloto, who has topped the provincial list, also cannot be ruled out of the running.
Northern Cape
Provincial minister of health Dipou Peters is being cited as the front-runner to replace Dipico as premier.
Dipico, who is currently heading the ANC’s elections desk, is probably going to be offered a position as ANC organiser. Luthuli House has been impressed with Dipico’s ability to draw the party together ahead of the elections. It is, however, another matter whether Dipico would be interested in pursuing that course. ANC members close to Dipico believe that if he does not get a position in Cabinet, he will probably opt for the private sector.
Provincial minister of transport, roads and public works, John Block, who tops the current list of provincial candidates, is being pushed for the premier’s job by a coloured grouping in the organisation in the province — despite allegations against him of corruption and abuse of office.
But Peters, who has a strong support base in the Kimberley region — the biggest in the province — has been described as the ANC national leadership’s favourite. Peters is already a member of the party’s national executive committee.
Mpumalanga
The former chairperson of the ANC caucus in Parliament, Makwetla was deployed by the national leadership to Mpumalanga in 2001, in an attempt to strengthen the provincial structures. It is widely believed that Makwetla is the premier-in-waiting and he is often introduced as such in public platforms.
While the ineffectual and intellectually wanting Ndaweni Mahlangu might have topped the list, he does not inspire the confidence of the people and the business community in the province. However, some ANC members in the province believe the president might leave him in his post because he has not done as badly in the job as is popularly perceived and because of his loyalty to Mbeki.
”While Mahlangu is a bit slow on the uptake, Mbeki might still retain him,” commented a local ANC official.
Eastern Cape
Some of those close to Mbeki believe current premier Makhenkesi Stofile’s days are numbered. Mpahlwa, who made a bid for the ANC provincial chair’s position last year and is close to Mbeki, is being touted as the likely successor.
Mpahlwa already serves as an elected member of the party’s provincial executive committee. However, Stofile, who tops the provincial list, might not go down without a fight.
If Stofile were to step down, the province would prefer provincial minister of finance Enoch Godongwana, who is featured at number two on the list. However Godongwana, who was cited as the fourth provincial minister that Mbeki wanted Stofile to fire last year, might not be the president’s candidate for the job.
Free State
Current Free State chairperson Ace Magashule, who topped the province’s list of candidates, is an unlikely choice for premier, given that the ANC national office has twice disbanded provincial structures that he headed. But Magashule, who has been running the ANC in the province ”with an iron first” and has recently become closer to the national leadership, cannot be ruled out.
In any event the ANC leadership in the Free State is facing a shake-up. The rebellious province placed Deputy President Jacob Zuma number one on their list of candidates and Mbeki only fourth. Only one serving provincial minister was among the top 30 candidates, with Direko an ignominious 52, second-last on the list.
Mbeki might rely on national Minister of Defence and former premier of the province Mosiuoa Lekota to help him make a decision. Among the provincial leaders close to Lekota, the provincial minister of health, Anna Motsumi-Tsopo, and member of provincial legislature Gregory Nthathisi would be front-runners for the position. Or Mbeki might settle for someone from outside with a national profile.
North West
Provincial minister of public works and current provincial deputy chairperson Jerry Thibedi and provincial minister of developmental, local government and housing Darkey Africa are considered front-runners for Premier Popo Molefe’s post. Molefe finishes his final term next year. Africa has topped the provincial list. Thibedi is seen to be close to the Molefe grouping, which is not close to ANC’s national leadership. If Mbeki’s right-hand man Essop Pahad, who hails from the province, pulls the strings on this decision, Africa, a capable minister, might be the chosen one.
KwaZulu-Natal
One of the first provinces to have its list conference, KwaZulu-Natal will be the last to divulge the names of the ANC members it wants to send to the provincial legislature and Parliament. ANC spokesperson Mtholephi Mthimkhulu dismissed speculation that the deputy president heads the list, followed by Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Minister for Public Enterprises Jeff Radebe. Mbeki is believed to feature after their names on the list of candidates for Parliament.
Mthimkhulu said the list committee was believed to be addressing the issue of balance and geographical representation on the list, hence the delay. Should the ANC win the province, provincial minister of transport S’bu Ndebele, who tops the provincial list, would be the choice for premier. His rival within the organisation, provincial minister of health Zweli Mkhize, is believed to top the provincial to national list, raising speculation that he is being engineered out of the province.
Gauteng
The ANC in Gauteng has affirmed its current leadership, with the premier and his 10 provincial ministers occupying the top 11 slots. This means Mbhazima Shilowa will continue as premier of the province.
Provincial minister of finance and economic affairs Jabu Moleketi is also being nominated on the province to national lists. He has served his two terms in the province and is now earmarked for a deputy minister’s post in the next Cabinet. But other provincial ministers such as Paul Mashatile and Mary Metcalfe, who have also served two full terms, were not nominated for any national posts.
The ANC in Gauteng did not vote on the order of their list of candi-dates for Parliament, because it had not consulted everyone about their availability and because they assumed the national list conference will place the candidates. By doing this the province avoided having to pronounce on who is most popular among the current government leaders. Instead the province took the unusual step of not voting, but insisting that Mbeki will be first, Zuma second and the rest of the names will be in alphabetical order.
Western Cape
After weeks of bruising lobbying, sparked largely by jockeying for jobs, the Western Cape ANC last Saturday settled on a compromise list that includes names from both rival camps.
The list features all serving ANC provincial ministers in the top 10. The key mover behind one rival pre-conference list, ANC provincial secretary general Mcebisi Skwatsha, is fourth. Three others on his list — provincial speaker Lynne Brown, and members of provincial legislature Garth Strachan and Max Ozinsky — are also in the top 10.
At number one is provincial chairperson and minister of economic affairs Ebrahim Rasool — although this does not guarantee him nomination as the party’s premier candidate come next year’s election should Mbeki decide otherwise.
Additional reporting by Rapule Tabane and Marianne Merten