Michael Howard emerged as the man most likely to be the third leader of the British Conservative Party in six years this week, after Iain Duncan Smith lost his battle to retain the Tory leadership by 75 to 90 votes cast by his fellow Tory members of the United Kingdom Parliament.
Within minutes of the result of a confidence vote being announced, David Davis, the most overtly ambitious of the potential candidates, confirmed rumours that he would not stand, instead backing Howard as the candidate ”best equipped to unify our party”.
Claiming that he believed he could have won — probably by courting party activists rather than MPs — Davis told the TV cameras that ”a long protracted leadership contest would worsen the divisions and faction fighting” that have bedevilled the party in the run-up to the likely 2005 election.
Though the two men talked during the day, both sides insisted there had been ”no deal” that might guarantee Davis (54) a senior post or the prospect of the eventual succession.
Close to tears as fellow MPs congratulated him on his sacrifice, Davis told The Guardian: ”I have agonised over this these past six weeks. Who wants to be leader of a wrecked party? We have been through agony for the past 10 years and somehow we have got to draw a line under it.”
Although some MPs are warning that an uncontested ”coronation” for Howard (62), a lawyer and right-wing former home secretary, would cause enormous resentment among ”disenfranchised” party activists, Davis predicts it will not.
”The constituencies will understand that with an election 18 months away and Labour in disarray this would not be the time to turn in on ourselves,” he said.
Some MPs believe that — after a decade of backstabbing that began with Margaret Thatcher’s fall — such an act of generosity may be the catalyst for the poison to be neutralised.
It means that Michael Ancram and Tim Yeo, both relative moderates, will now hesitate to join the contest. Davis on Wednesday urged them not to stand.
John Redwood and Theresa May, also tipped to run, will not. Kenneth Clarke’s friends say he will not do so either.
The drive to unity, despite this week’s narrowly split vote, was reinforced by a pro-Howard statement from Oliver Letwin and Liam Fox, both shadow cabinet Duncan Smith loyalists, and Stephen Dorrell, a moderate once close to Clarke, which came only 30 minutes after Davis’s statement.
Duncan Smith, who performed far better in the confidence vote than his detractors had predicted, made a brief statement outside party headquarters only 788 days after succeeding his predecessor, William Hague.
He pledged his ”absolute loyalty and support” to whoever steps into his shoes, but would be neutral in any contest.
Under the rules candidates have until November 6 to declare.
Talk of a snap election with nominations closing on Thursday was stopped on legal advice, for fear of judicial review.
In any case, whether there is a Howard ”coronation” or not, Wednesday’s manoeuvres look certain to make the succession a far shorter process than gloomy Duncan Smith loyalists predicted.
They had foreseen a protracted fight that would let the Blair government ”off the hook”.
Addressing MPs in what some claimed was his best-ever speech, Duncan Smith admitted errors but said he had learned.
”Over the last two years, the policies that we have developed have allowed us to unite. We have an opportunity today. The tide is turning against this Labour government.”
A new leader would also need time to learn, he said, an assertion disputed by Howard supporters. One Duncan Smith-backer admitted: ”Michael has two key qualities, gravitas and intellect, which will combine to give him credibility.”
Howard is not out of the woods yet. A formidable parliamentary performer against both Prime Minister Tony Blair and present British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw, he is also a tough-minded Eurosceptic. He is far from being a social liberal and his fellow Conservative Ann Widdecombe’s jibe that he had ”something of the night” about him has stuck.
”Michael can be exceptionally intense and irritable and does not have a very warm personality,” said one colleague. But Davis, too, has fierce detractors.
On Wednesday the 165 MPs eligible to decide the confidence issue under rules revised by Hague filed in. Some declared their votes, others were ambiguous. ”I’ve done my duty,” said one.
Duncan Smith loyalists had rallied the 16-strong Conservative Party board, many angry local constituency activists and all the Opposition Front bench except Eric Forth — a Davis supporter — to back the incumbent. The major donors remained divided.
Duncan Smith, in self-deprecating mode, joked that ”anyone who wants to be leader of the opposition needs his head examined”.
Few listeners doubted the claim though it came at the end of a hectic day of media appearances in which he repeatedly appealed for Tories to unite behind him and get on with fighting Labour.
”I am not a quitter, I have never been a quitter. At the end of the day, you always have to live with yourself,” said Duncan Smith, who will stay on as caretaker leader until his successor is chosen. — Â