Having outdone itself in the number of Cabinet posts given to women ministers, the African National Congress now has a real chance of showing that it is sincere about allowing women to take the lead in its provincial structures.
The ANC says it aims to meet the objectives of maintaining continuity, adding fresh blood and balancing gender representation when appointing premiers. President Thabo Mbeki has the final say on these appointments.
In the Northern Cape, activists are of the opinion that provincial minister of health Dipuo Peters should succeed outgoing Premier Manne Dipico, who has completed his two terms in office.
Peters was until recently a distant second to popular provincial minister John Block, who seemed the natural choice for premiership.
But Block disgraced himself when he used government resources to feed an expensive jazz habit with his wife on a trip to Cape Town. Block has admitted his fault and apologised.
The North West is spoilt for choice, with two dynamic ANC women leaders being touted to succeed outgoing Premier Popo Molefe, who also leaves after serving two terms.
First in line is long-serving ANC member Thandi Modise, who has indicated that she wants to be nearer to her Vryburg home.
Modise is an Umkhonto weSizwe veteran who has served as national ANC Women’s League deputy president until this year. Last year she challenged Molefe for the provincial ANC chairpersonship, but lost. Although reported to be reluctant to stand, she is a definite contender.
North West minister of agriculture Edna Molewa is another with strong credentials. Molewa is the current women’s league provincial chairperson and was previously an MP in Cape Town.
In Limpopo, minister of health Sello Moloto heads the provincial list. But there is a strong feeling that Mbeki might exercise his powers to hand the reins of this largely rural province to Joyce Mabudafhasi, who has already proved herself in a national deputy minister’s post. But Mabudafhasi find herself in the enviable position of being eligible for the post of national minister of environmental affairs and tourism where her current senior, Mohammed Valli Moosa, is quitting the post, opening a vacancy.
In the Free State it remains to be seen whether Mbeki would want to defy popular sentiment that endorses Ace Magashule as premier.
The branches have voted Magashule top of the province several times, but the ANC national leadership has opted for unpopular candidates such as Ivy Matsepe-Cassaburi and incumbent, Winkie Direko.
In Mpumalanga the ANC may use the opportunity to cut across the factions and appoint a senior party member who is not linked to any of the factions. It is also a chance to get rid of lacklustre Premier Ndaweni Mahlangu, who has never really exerted his authority in the province.
Leading the race in Mpumalanga is former ANC whip Thabang Makwetla, who was brought from Parliament as part of measures to stabilise the infighting in the province.
Makwetla, the current provincial minister of safety and security, is rated as one of the bright and future ANC leaders.
Eastern Cape Premier Makhenkesi Stofile has presided over an administration characterised by chaos, inefficiency and often corruption.
National Deputy Minister of Finance Mandisi Mpahlwa has been touted as the likely replacement, but the Mail & Guardian has been told that there is concern about interfering with succession in a crucial department such as finance. An argument in favour of Mpahlwa is that the province needs a strong finance person who understands Treasury procedures, because the province is bedevilled by careless expenditure, poor monitoring of the budget and inadequate systems to curb corruption.
It is in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal that the ANC appears to have certain candidates in Mbhazima Shilowa and Sbu’ Ndebele.
Ndebele has been denied the premiership by the Inkatha Freedom Party because of the party’s ties with the Democratic Alliance.
Having survived the bruising list rivalry battle a few months ago —emerging at the number one spot of the ”unity and continuity” final list — Ebrahim Rasool will get the nomination for the Western Cape.