ANC expects ‘late surge’

The African National Congress is expecting a “late surge” of ANC votes as the elections results stream in. The party said it expected the results for the official opposition Democratic Alliance to decline further as the day goes by.

ANC spokesperson Steyn Speed told the Mail & Guardian Online on Thursday at the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) headquarters in Pretoria that the areas in which there were still votes outstanding were those in which the ANC expected to do well.

“It is typical in these elections for areas with worse infrastructure — such as rural areas and townships — for [their] results to come in last, particularly with those large populations … It has to do with the fact that in more developed areas with better infrastructure, the results always come in first,” said Speed.

“One of the reasons why the DA’s figures are looking so good at the moment is that the areas that the DA would do well were the first to come through, but we have seen during the day that their percentage has been slipping. They were sitting at 20%, but they are now down to 14% and they will continue slipping,” he said.

Speed said opposition parties were competing for fewer votes and “fishing in a smaller pool of voters”, while the ANC was expanding its support.

“The one interesting thing is that the traditional base of the DA and NNP [New National Party] is now being shared three ways with those two parties and the Independent Democrats. I think that apart from that the results are panning out pretty much as one would expect,” he said.

Commenting on the performance of the ID, which is competing in its first elections, he said: “I think the ID was always a wild card, and it will be interesting to see how it develops — whether it follows the same pattern of the rise and fall of the UDM [United Democratic Movement] and whether it can sustain the level of support in this elections.”

The ID has regularly been in fourth spot most of Thursday in the national vote, jostling with the NNP, which is just behind the ID with about 2% of the vote.

Throughout most of Thursday the ANC has held a massive lead and looks certain to get a two-thirds majority. The DA is also comfortably in second spot and looks certain to be the official opposition again.

The ANC and DA have been widely criticised for their acrimonious and “unhealthy” working relationship, which critics say has served racially to polarise South African politics. It is a well-known fact that President Thabo Mbeki and DA leader Tony Leon do not get on.

“I think what the ANC has always said is that it wants to work with any party that is committed to meeting the needs of South Africans, and the whole concept of the ‘people’s contract’ is that South Africans need to work together.

“Whether the DA will be able to do that given the antagonistic stance they have adopted remains to be seen. But we would want to work to overcome the kind of polarisation which has arisen out of DA-style campaigning,” said Speed.

“It would be wrong to personalise this matter, but the DA and ANC disagree on a number of matters,” he added.

Speed said the ANC is still very much open to an alliance with the IFP. The DA and the IFP formed a “coalition of change” in KwaZulu-Natal to take it away from ANC control.

“We have a relationship with the IFP that stretches back a number of years, and even this year both parties committed themselves to ongoing bilaterals to discuss that relationship. We still think that there is a basis for a relationship between the two parties. And the IFP have not indicated to us in any bilateral meetings that they think any differently,” said Speed.

Speed was adamant that the agreement of cooperation between the NNP and the ANC would continue, but hinted that it would be reassessed after the elections.

“The agreement of cooperation will continue after this election. The form that this cooperation takes will be determined by the prevailing circumstances in each instance. So once the elections are over and results are known we will look at how best to take that agreement forward,” said Speed.