/ 27 September 2004

Barbarians at the gate?

For months they were confined in anonymous boardrooms, breathing the recycled air of stalemate as a red wedge of social forces gathered itself outside for an assault on the simpler, better blue of the financial sector charter.

And then, all of a spring afternoon, a thousand flowers bloomed: Blade Nzimande didn’t have to break down the door to the charter council, because Finance Minister Trevor Manuel had opened it for him.

So the bankers and insurance salesmen are no longer deadlocked, but they are gobsmacked.

The South African Communist Party and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) had since June been angrily protesting their exclusion from the council — which will monitor and guide the implementation of the charter — and called into question targets for transformation that were agreed by the core group of industry representatives that led the process.

The left coalition wanted a structure modelled after the National Economic Development and Labour Council, with government, business, labour and civil society each equally represented.

Not surprisingly, banks and insurers baulked at the notion that the radical restructuring of their industry would be steered by a body in which established companies had only a minority voice.

And there things stalled. Manuel was repeatedly petitioned to intervene and, by all accounts, did a good job of appearing serenely unconcerned. Perhaps he thought there was little percentage in getting involved in a process that the government and the industry were anxious to present as a private sector initiative.

When he did move, he taught the architects of the charter a lesson in politics that they will not soon forget. Of course, there are no leaks from inside the core group, but as far anyone can gather it went down like this:

First, Manuel primed the media, saying on Friday that the time had come to act, ensuring approving headlines in Monday’s business press.

Then he called the core group to a meeting at 40 Hof Street, Pretoria — his home turf — where he breezily presented a solution.

Six seats for established business; three seats for black business; four for the government; four for the unions; and four for community organisations, to be reviewed in two years.

For a little while the only sound in the room was the soft exhalation of breath as the punch went home.

That leaves the council with eight places for the broad left, only six for the establishment and potential casting votes for the government and black business — a slight compromise on earlier demands from Cosatu and the SACP, but a long way indeed from the vision of the private sector.

No one was brave enough to object, some industry representatives expressed “concern”, and Nzimande grinned.

But before anyone had really had time to recover, Manuel led them off to a hastily convened press conference, and then left for London.

So the charter process is back on track for now, and no one in a thoroughly out-manoeuvered industry is in a position to point out publicly that the largest bloc on the council consists of socialists, or that there are not enough seats set aside for business to ensure that all major industry associations are represented.

In any event, the SACP and Cosatu will now be pressing hard for changes to some of the targets that underpin the charter.

They have already made it clear that they are not happy with what they see as an excessive focus on big equity deals, and they would like to see investment houses focus more on financing empowerment projects in the real economy.

Many in the unions feel that black security and investment professionals are too deeply involved in lucrative deal structuring and merchant banking activity to appreciate this argument.  

One possibility is that they will use their seats on the council to propose that funding for black economic empowerment share transfers be credited only partially, or not at all, towards any company’s empowerment finance obligations.

There is also likely to be considerable upward pressure on targets for providing home loans and other financial services to the poor, as well as employment equity requirements.

There are two possible responses to all this.

Some will be fretting. Company boards and equity markets have by-and-large digested the implications of the charter, and the thought that it may undergo substantial changes doesn’t warm their cold, calculating hearts.

Political risk, it is called, and it isn’t just the president who dislikes it.

The current government, with its intense focus on the basic infrastructure of the economy, is highly unlikely to countenance any moves that seriously damage the financial services sector.

And it is far from a foregone conclusion that the left coalition has the kind of capacity required fully to exploit its victory. Certainly the small, and overtaxed, brains trust at Cosatu and SACP will have its work cut out.

The trick for the council will now be to ensure that a more responsive, flexible transformation process does not come at the cost of investment.

Manuel looks to have pulled off a victory for the consensual style of economic management that rules Germany and Japan, but the council is going to have an interesting couple of years.