Hawks eye plum Cabinet posts

There are no great expectations in Washington that a second-term Bush administration will have a radically different complexion from the first term. George Bush values loyalty and prefers to stick to a tried and tested team.

However, after four years in office, much of it at war, some of his Cabinet are anxious to move on, and the president will not be able to avoid making some changes.

”The recent history of second terms is not very promising in terms of bold policy initiatives,” said G Calvin Mackenzie, a professor of government at Colby College in Maine. ”But there are a lot of people in this administration who now see an opportunity to go make a lot of money in the private sector, and have been on a government salary for much longer than they would want to be.”

However, this is not the only motivating factor. Old age and policy differences also play a part, and the president usually has the final say. If he tells his Cabinet it is their duty to stay on at a time of war, it will be hard for them to refuse.

The big name most likely to leave is Colin Powell. His office has made it clear for more than two years that he does not plan to stay on long into a second term. Powell has spent the first term at odds with the far more powerful hawks led by vice-president Dick Cheney, particularly over Iraq. He clearly does not have a warm relationship with the president.

But Powell is the best-liked US official abroad, and at a time when the Bush administration needs allies, he is an extremely important tool. It is possible the president could insist Powell stay on for at least a few months for the sake of continuity.

If Powell insists on quitting, it could be a difficult job to fill. Richard Armitage, his deputy, is a possible replacement, but he has had an abrasive relationship with the administration hawks and may leave along with his boss.

Furthermore, the president could have two top vacancies to juggle.

Opinions in Washington are divided on whether Powell’s nemesis at the Pentagon, Donald Rumsfeld, might also step down at the age of 72. Overseeing two wars has been exhausting. He is unpopular among the armed services and faulted by many conservatives for failing to send enough troops to Iraq.

However, Rumsfeld is ideologically at home in the administration, and has the full confidence of both Bush and Cheney. One option is that he could stay on for a few months or a year before stepping down.

”I would be very surprised if the secretary of defence and secretary of state would continue very long into the new term,” Professor Mackenzie said. ”If one or both of them leaves, this sets off a domino effect.”

Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, has mentioned her desire to return to academia, but would find it difficult to turn down the chance she covets: to become the first female or African American defence secretary.

The state department might be a tougher culture for her to manage, more resistant to her politics. Nevertheless it would also be hard to turn down.

A national security reshuffle would also raise questions over the future of the neo-conservative deputy defence secretary Paul Wolfowitz. If he is made either defence secretary, secretary of state or national security adviser, it would signal an even more ambitious, aggressive foreign policy agenda.

Stephen Hadley, a neo-conservative who is Rice’s deputy, is also tipped to advance, possibly taking over the top job there.

The choice of Powell’s replacement will say a lot about how keen the president is to mend international bridges. One strong possibility is John Danforth, recently made the US ambassador to the United Nations, who is seen as a relative moderate by Democrats.

There will also be inevitable changes in the domestic line-up, but those changes are unlikely to signal a significant shift in policy. John Ashcroft, the controversial attorney-general, is the man to watch.

He is a divisive figure even within Republican ranks — an icon among Christian conservatives, but unpopular among moderates. Whether he stays or goes could say a lot about the new administration.

The same will be true about the supreme court. The chief justice and two or three others of the nine-judge panel are expected to retire, allowing Bush to replace a split court with a conservative one.

Moving on and moving up

Colin Powell, secretary of state

Thought Cabinet member most likely to leave

Possible successors: