Short-term outlooks are relatively favourable with the best chance for good rainfalls over the period December 6 to December 8, 2004 in South Africa’s maize belt, consultant Enviro Vision said in a statement said on Thursday.
Regarding the size of the coming 2004/05 commercial maize crop, Enviro Vision put the crop at about 10 million tonnes, from the previous season’s 9,5 million tonnes.
Turning to the El Nino event, the consultant said that the El Nino development was still very weak and was, according to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) classification, still “neutral” for the fourth consecutive month.
Current anomalies or deviations from normal in the Nino 3,4 area is about 0,8 degrees centigrade, which is way below the three to five degrees centigrade of the El Ninos of 1982, 1991 and 1997.
“The lack of spring rain is also an indication of non-El Nino conditions.
Probably the most important aspect currently is the forecast of a cooling down trend in the Nino 3,4 and Nino 4 areas from about the end of December 2004. The cooling down phase is often associated with favourable rainfall conditions,”
Enviro Vision said.
“Prospects for rain for the next six months are less negative than initial forecasts. SOI analogue for similar years in the past [based on the period July to November] were 1986/87, 1957/58, 1980/81 and 1977/78. In at least three of the six-month periods from September to February the long-term average rainfall was exceeded in all four analogue years,” the consultant added.
In a review of recent maize-belt conditions, Enviro Vision said that rainfall in November 2004 was mainly restricted to the Mpumalanga and KwaZulu-Natal provinces.
Isolated good falls towards the end of November were also received in the Free State and North-West provinces, but it was in most cases not sufficient to start the planting process.
Dry and hot conditions were responsible for a very dry upper part of the soil profile and rain in the last week of November was not enough to penetrate this dry upper layer to ensure favourable planting conditions.
About 30% of the western maize growing area received at least 30mm in November that enabled farmers to start the cultivation process.
The important maize growing districts of Lichtenburg, Delareyville, Bothaville, Viljoenskroon and Kroonstad received less than 30mm.
Growing conditions average over Mpumalanga and southern Kwazulu-Natal.
However, serious problems were experienced by maize farmers in the Eastern Free State with very little rain before the end of November 2004. The planting window is now almost completed.
It is anticipated that the maize area in the Eastern Free State will probably be smaller than the intended area and alternative crops like dry beans, soya bean and sunflower will be considered, Enviro Vision said.
Conditions in both Brazil and Argentina are currently favourable, EnviroVision added. – I-Net Bridge.