The prime interest rate is to remain steady at 11% after the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted on Thursday to keep the repo rate, at which it lends money to commercial banks, at 7,5%.
SARB Governor Tito Mboweni made the announcement on Thursday afternoon after a meeting of the bank’s monetary policy committee (MPC).
The rand firmed against major currencies after the announcement.
At 3.19pm, the rand was quoted at R6,1876 per dollar from R6,2376 just before Mboweni delivered the MPC’s statement and an overnight close of R6,23. It was quoted at R7,8923 to the euro from R7,9625 just before the decision was announced and at R11,4850 against the pound, 10 cents firmer than its level just before Mboweni started speaking.
Traders had expected the rand to firm should the repo rate be left unchanged. A cut would have dented the rand-supportive carry trade, which involves borrowing in low-yielding currencies and investing in high yielders.
South African economists have reacted to the MPC announcement.
John Loos, economist at Absa, said: ”This is not a surprising decision by the SARB’s MPC given the fact that the risks are too high at the moment. But I think the inflation outlook is very good and I believe that in April there is a possibility of a 50 basis-point interest-rate cut. My belief is that the inflation outlook is good and we are likely to see consumer demand cooling down with the prospects of good inflation figures as the year progresses.”
Mike Schussler, chief economist at T-Sec, said: ”I am a bit disappointed that there was no change but this is probably good for the rand — but the bond market will go back a little bit from here. I expect that the MPC’s decision will be neutral for the equity market.”
According to Johan Rossouw, chief economist at Vector Securities, the MPC announcement ”is in line with our expectations. However, I’m a bit more bearish than they seem to be — especially on the outlook for inflation going forth. I think we’ll see a hike during the third quarter of the year.”
Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group, said: ”I’m happy with the decision, which was pretty much as expected. It was not a hawkish decision — I picked up a very dovish tone in Mboweni’s statement. I think it was the correct decision.”
On Wednesday, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) called on the SARB to cut interest rates to a level comparable with those of South Africa’s main trading partners — about 1% in real terms.
The union federation argued that interest rates in South Africa remain, in real as well as nominal terms, far above that of most industrialised economies.
”That has in turn led to a strong inflow of short-run capital, boosting the rand at the cost of exports and employment,” Cosatu said.
Two-thirds of economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge saw no change in the repo rate, but a third expected a 50 basis-point cut.
Cosatu said the main challenges facing the South African economy remain mass poverty and massive unemployment.
”That is why the Constitution requires the SARB to protect the value of the currency, not in the abstract, but ‘in the interest of balanced and sustainable economic growth in the republic’. To carry out this mandate demands a further cut in interest rates,” Cosatu argued. — Sapa, I-Net Bridge