South Africa will pay dearly for global industrialisation and other activities that generate greenhouse gases, a new study revealed on Thursday.
A report by the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), released in Cape Town, warns that rising temperatures will change the face of the country by 2050.
As a result of the so-called greenhouse effect, South Africa is going to experience a ”steady warming of three degrees Celsius within the lifetime of the present generation of children”.
The impact of this on water resources, food production, poor communities and tourism, among other things, will be enormous, says the study.
In sober, conservative prose, the report describes the coming changes as ”appreciable in some regions” of the country.
SANBI chief executive Brian Huntley told a media briefing in Cape Town on Thursday that global warming would have a ”profound impact” on South Africa’s agriculture sector.
Further, an increase in winter temperatures could bring about a ”substantial” expansion of malaria zones, putting populations in parts of all provinces, except the Western Cape, at risk of contracting the disease.
Parts of Mpumalanga, Limpopo, the North West, KwaZulu-Natal and even Gauteng could become ”high risk” malaria areas. This would affect the tourism market.
Changing rainfall patterns would also see water resources in some parts of the country come under threat.
”[One report] has been showing there’s a projected ‘drying out’ of the Western Cape … a substantial and significant decrease in the winter rainfall in the region. And in the eastern part of the country, perhaps an increase in the summer rainfall.
”This is going to have a profound impact on agriculture … the most vulnerable communities are those that are emerging as farmers, often on marginal lands on the western fringes of the maize belt,” Huntley said.
Changes to vegetation in parts of the country would also be dramatic, ”particularly in the south-west Cape. Fynbos is particularly vulnerable … many thousands of [plant] extinctions are likely because of the shrinking of the extent of the fynbos group.
”The impact of this is huge in terms of our protected-areas system. We have an excellent system in this country, but we’re having to learn that some are perhaps in the wrong place in terms of what’s going to happen over the next 50 years.”
The abundance of bird species would also change.
”Ornithologists indicate a very significant reduction in the richness patterns of our avifauna,” said Huntley.
A similar fate would await reptile and mammal species.
On marine biodiversity, Huntley said no good projections are currently available. However, should climate change affect the Benguela current, this would have a major impact on South Africa’s fisheries.
He said the report also predicts an increase in ”extreme events”, such as floods, hailstorms and hurricanes.
Opening the briefing, Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism Marthinus van Schalkwyk said South Africans will see ”quite dramatic changes” over the next 20 to 30 years as a result of climate change.
In the western parts of the country, these changes are ”just around the corner, and would start happening 10 to 15 years from now”.
”The face of the landscape will change,” the minister said.
As the ”drastic changes” unfold, farmers would have to start looking at different crop types and new methods of production.
”South Africa is very vulnerable … there is no need to panic, but climate change is cause for grave concern,” he said.
A fortnight ago, the report was shown to the Cabinet, which decided South Africa will adopt a ”balanced approach” to dealing with climate change, including both mitigation of its effects and adaptation to new circumstances.
An interministerial committee will be appointed, and a model developed to deal with climate change.
In October this year, a conference of African scientists and a national conference on climate change will be held ”back to back with a meeting of all African ministers for the environment”.
Scenario planners will also examine the different international models being proposed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, Van Schalkwyk said. — Sapa