It could be at least five years before Iraqi forces are strong enough to impose law and order on the country, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS) has warned .
The think tank’s report said that Iraq had become a valuable recruiting ground for al-Qaeda, and Iraqi forces were nowhere near close to matching the insurgency.
John Chipman, IISS director, said the Iraqi security forces faced a ”huge task” and the continuing ability of the insurgents to inflict mass casualties ”must cast doubt on United States plans to redeploy American troops and eventually reduce their numbers”.
Insurgents have killed at least 615 people since April 28, when Iraq’s new prime minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, announced his Shia-dominated government. The IISS report said: ”Best estimates suggest that it will take up to five years to create anything close to an effective indigenous force able to impose and guarantee order across the country.”
The report said that, on balance, US policy over the past year had been effective in emboldening regional players in the Middle East and the Gulf to rally against rogue states.
But it warned that the inspirational effect of the intervention in Iraq on Islamist terrorism was ”the proverbial elephant in the living room. From al-Qaeda’s point of view, [President George W] Bush’s Iraq policies have arguably produced a confluence of propitious circumstances: a strategically bogged down America, hated by much of the Islamic world, and regarded warily even by its allies.”
Iraq ”could serve as a valuable proving ground for ‘blooding’ foreign jihadists, and could conceivably form the basis of a second generation of capable al-Qaeda leaders … and middle-management players”, the report said.
This week a statement was placed on the al-Qaeda in Iraq website claiming that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the Jordanian-born Islamist who has claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, kidnappings and beheadings of foreign hostages, had been injured.
The statement, whose authenticity could not be verified, did not say how or when he was injured. It said: ”Let the near and far know that the injury of our leader is an honour, and a cause to close in on the enemies of God, and a reason to increase the attacks against them.”
There were reports this month that the US military was investigating whether al-Zarqawi was at a Ramadi hospital and whether he was ill or injured.
The think tank report points to US estimates that there are between 12 000 and 20 000 hard core insurgents in Iraq. It says that Iraqi politicians have been keen to blame the rise in sectarian violence on foreign jihadists. ”But they may have overstated their case.”
Yesterday, Iraq’s new interior minister, Bayan al-Jabr, who is also a member of the ruling Shia-led alliance, met two prominent Sunni Muslim figures in an effort to reduce sectarian tensions. Officials said the meeting was designed to ”curb all hateful attempts aiming to plan sectarian sedition among the Iraqi people”.
Toby Dodge, senior fellow at the IISS, estimated that there were about 1 000 foreign fighters in Iraq ”perfecting the use of car bombs”. There seemed to be no ”viable exit strategy” for foreign troops. — Â