/ 15 June 2005

No clarity on Zuma’s successor

There was still no clarity on Wednesday as to when President Thabo Mbeki will announce Jacob Zuma’s successor as deputy president — but an acting president has to be appointed to fill the shoes of Mbeki when he is in Nigeria on Sunday.

It is also not clear if Zuma’s dismissal has taken immediate effect ‒- but clarity on this matter is likely to made later on Wednesday, a government source said.

Zuma was asked when his dismissal — announced as a ”release” from his position by Mbeki on Tuesday at a joint sitting of Parliament -‒ actually took effect. He appeared to be under the impression that it was immediate, although Zuma noted that he had not been in the Assembly when the announcement was made.

Mbeki is attending a New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad) heads of state meeting in Nigeria on Sunday and this will necessitate the appointment of an acting president.

On previous occasions when both Mbeki and Zuma have been out of the country at the same time, Mbeki has rotated the presidency among a number of Cabinet ministers — the most recent being Minister of Minerals and Energy Affairs Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka.

Inkatha Freedom Party leader and then Home Affairs Minister Mangosuthu Buthelezi has acted as president a number of times — but he was not reappointed to the Cabinet after the April elections in 2004.

Normally the deputy president would act as president in the absence of the Mbeki — but with Zuma now out or, perhaps, almost out — the task will fall to one of the Cabinet members.

A permanent appointment of deputy president — even if it is viewed as an interim measure — places Mbeki in a strong position to determine his successor in 2009. The president’s second — and constitutionally final term — comes to an end in that year.

With Zuma now an unlikely successor — even though he remains the ruling African National Congress’s (ANC’s) deputy president — for the party’s top job, Mbeki’s choice will be a shoe-in for the top government and the top party job.

Among likely candidates mentioned by ANC MPs are the Defence Minister and former Free State premier Mosiuoa ”Terror” Lekota; Mlambo-Ngcuka, Minister of Foreign Affairs Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Minister of Finance Trevor Manuel.

With the insistence by Mbeki that women need to be equitably represented as candidates in the upcoming municipal elections, pressure will be on to appoint a woman as deputy president.

Dlamini-Zuma — the ex-wife of Jacob Zuma — is not a popular figure within the party and has failed in the past even to win the presidency of the ANC Women’s League when Winnie Madikizela-Mandela won election.

She also carries a less-than-rosy image of having been embroiled in the controversy of the Sarafina II HIV/Aids play while she was Minister of Health in the first democratic government after 1994.

However, Lekota, as number three in the party hierarchy — as national chairperson — is well placed for the post of national deputy president. He would also bring in a popular constituency. Significantly, he beat Mbeki’s favoured candidate for the party post — the late Steve Tshwete.

Mlambo-Ngcuka has proved to an able political master of her portfolio and has guided a difficult process of change in the mining industry.

She has managed to be seen to be acting in the interest of workers while being able to negotiate ably with mine owners as well during the controversy over the mining charter.

Manuel may turn out to be a dark horse candidate. He significantly gained the most votes for the national executive committee of his party in 2002. He has served as Minister of Finance since 1996 — and commands wide respect from the business community and from workers.

But in the meantime, Mbeki is playing his cards close to his chest. He will address a youth day function in Kimberley on Thursday June 16. An announcement of an acting deputy president will probably be made between then and Saturday.

But he is likely to act swiftly in assessing the candidates — a process with which the president is currently engaged — for a permanent appointment. – I-Net Bridge