The hasty and silent manner in which Côte d’Ivoire President Laurent Koudou Gbagbo left Pretoria this week would indicate that he did not get the result he wanted from two days of wrangling about the peace process in his country. This round of negotiations, mediated by President Thabo Mbeki, had certainly been billed as an occasion to pile the pressure on the rebel New Forces.
They had, after all, failed to meet the June 27 deadline for disarmament, and were making less than enthusiastic noises about the elections scheduled for October.
The last time the Ivoireans were at the presidential guest house in the South African capital, Gbagbo had his foot held very close to the fire.
Within days of signing the April 6 Pretoria Agreement, he confirmed publicly what he had yielded at the table: acceptance that exiled opposition leader Alassane Ouattara may contest the elections without subjecting the country to a referendum on changing arcane nationality laws.
This latest round of talks was called with one single objective: to put the April 6 agreement back on track.
Mbeki and his Deputy Foreign Minister, Aziz Pahad, made plain their exasperation at the backsliding by the Ivoireans on specific undertakings and deadlines. Gbagbo and his rivals have made a habit of this since the country sank into civil war after a failed coup in 2002.
The African Union pulled Mbeki into the mediation role after Gbagbo ran out of allies in West Africa because they pushed him so hard to implement the 2003 French-brokered Linas-Marcoussis agreement.
Diplomatically, Mbeki maintains that accord remains the framework for peace. He has simply provided a new road map for reaching that peace.
So there was pressure, loads of it, on all the players gathered at the square of tables in Pretoria — Gbagbo, Seydou Elimane Diarra, Ouattara, Henri Konan Bédié and rebel leader Guillaume Soro.
They acknowledged that if they veer off the road Mbeki has laid out, they face sanctions from the AU and probably also the United Nations.
Gbagbo has weeks to shepherd through legislation enabling the October election.
He will be allowed to use his special presidential power to make specific, agreed-upon alterations to the Constitution. He will not, however, be able to make other changes to the basic law without consulting the negotiating parties.
The government-backed militia has to be dismantled within 45 days. Soro must immediately begin disarming his rebels. Demobilisation on both sides must be completed by late August.
Small wonder there was a lack of smiles and backslapping as the players left the table after what must be chalked up as yet another small victory for South Africa’s high-pressure negotiating tactics. Previous celebrations, sadly, have turned out to be premature.