In the world of political miscalculations, none has been as dramatic recently as the African National Congress leadership’s belief that ordinary ANC members would accept the resignation of Jacob Zuma from organisational activities.
It was a stupendous mistake that nearly derailed the national general council (NGC), held last weekend in Pretoria, from earnest policy discussions. It exposed deep anger among members and threatened to undo all the work that President Thabo Mbeki had invested in organisational unity and discipline over the years.
Mbeki should not have been surprised and was indeed badly advised if he thought organisational discipline equated to meek acquiescence to leadership views.
But a rattled Mbeki has thrown down the gauntlet by indicating his availability to run for another term as ANC president in 2007.
It will be a complete injustice if the NGC were reduced to a mere popularity contest between Mbeki and Zuma. If it were, Zuma would have won hands down, as evidenced by how he was mobbed by delegates who posed for pictures with him every time he stepped outside the conference hall.
The NGC did take resolutions that are likely to have a long-term impact on South Africa. Few noticed that the organisation reaffirmed the principle of judicial independence.
The NGC also resolved that the party and the government must show more urgency in tackling the Zimbabwean situation. This should send a message to South African diplomats who shirk from actively confronting the Zimbabwean leadership.
The party also sought to reassert control of the party over the government, which comes in the wake of criticism that government officials, rather than the party, were determining policy. It was a point conceded by Mbeki who said the government had good policy research units that Luthuli House did not possess.
Delegates decided that the party should exercise vigilance over the government, saying the ANC must audit what is reflected in the manifesto and what has been delivered on the ground.
The party also formalised a quota of 50% of women on the ANC’s lists of election candidates, which delegates said should be backed by a clear programme that accelerates empowerment of poor and working-class women. But, where the party leadership was suspected of trying to wrest control from the branches and centralise it, branches resisted all such proposals. These included the setting up of a permanent electoral commission whose work will be to take charge of elections at organisational congresses.
The ANC delegates also rejected moves to set up branches in companies and tertiary institutions, which members felt would be elite branches catering for the privileged.
It is trite that Zuma benefited immensely from the general mood and won a very symbolic victory when seven provinces, the Congess of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party insisted that he be reinstated as deputy president with full powers.
If unconvicted by 2007 Zuma will invariably enjoy the support of the left-leaning groups within the organisation. Two years in politics is a long time and Mbeki will be there and will be very strong.
But one hopes Mbeki means it when he says it will be better if a younger person with a fresh perspective leads the organisation. That person should be neither Zuma nor Mbeki. Both represent disparate and currently bitter groupings that could potentially polarise the organisation in a public manner not seen since the unbanning of the organisation in 1990. It is no longer a pretty sight to watch Zuma cringe every time the word “corruption” is mentioned. Neither was it pleasing to watch Mbeki looking so forlorn in his own organisation.