‘He was our Moses; our hero’

Analysts, refugees and political commentators are united in their view that the death of former rebel leader and Sudanese Vice-President, John Garang, could plunge the country into a new crisis and place immense pressure on the peace deal that, in January, ended 21 years of war.

John Ashworth, an aid worker who since the beginning of the conflict in 1983 worked closely with Garang and his Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), said Garang’s death would raise ‘terrible uncertainties”.

Garang (60) was killed when the heli-copter in which he and 13 others were travelling crashed in a remote area near southern Sudan’s border with Kenya and Uganda. Sudan’s President, Omar al-Bashir, blamed the ‘accident” on ‘poor visibility”.

But Sudanese exiles demanded an independent probe into the incident. ‘We want a team of international experts to investigate this tragedy. Many of us fear that Colonel John was the victim of an assassination,” said Nairobi businessman Marial Bol.

Independent conflict analyst Thomas Palmer felt ‘certain” that Garang’s death would ‘jeopardise” peace. ‘There are simply not enough quality leaders within the ranks of the SPLM to ensure a faithful adherence to the peace protocol. Garang was the central — if not the only — figure of substance in regional politics.”

While Garang’s deputy, Salva Kiir, will take leadership of the former rebels, and the vice-presidency in Khartoum, analysts still expect various SPLM leaders — specifically Riek Machar and Lam Akol — to jockey for greater authority.

Garang’s Dinka, the largest ethnic group in southern Sudan, have always dominated the SPLM. Machar is from the Nuer tribe and Akol is a Shilluk; both have previously launched attempts to overthrow Garang, who had sidelined them to the relatively lowly posts of caretaker administrators in marginal parts of southern Sudan.

In the confusing aftermath of Garang’s death, SPLM spokesperson Samson Kwaje insisted: ‘We will continue Garang’s work. There will be no battle for power because our movement is very mature. We are not a bunch of schoolboys,” he said.

But despite the reassurances, the majority of southern Sudanese worshipped Garang. His death triggered fatal riots and a sense of quiet despair pervaded the ranks of Sudanese exiles in Kenya.

‘With Commander Garang gone, only God knows who will now lead us to prosperity,” sighed Malou Machok, as he listened to a portable radio on a street corner in the centre of Nairobi. ‘He was our Moses, our hero!”

The former rebel was lauded as a champion of reconciliation, but retained ‘significant enemies, both in his organisation and in Khartoum”, according to a diplomat who had regular contact with him.

‘The conservative elements in al-Bashir’s regime resented Garang. They were particularly angry that they’d have to share the oil wealth with the SPLM [under the terms of the peace deal] — Others, including some key leaders in the SPLM itself, were opposed to him because he was a proponent of unity and sharing power with the north,” he concluded.

The peace agreement makes provision for a referendum in six years during which southern Sudanese will vote on unity with, or secession from, the north. According to sources close to the peace process, one of the fears now is that al-Bashir will have free rein to campaign in the south for unity.

One such source said: ‘Garang, although he was for the ‘one Sudan’ concept, told me many times that he would keep a tight rein on northern state operatives in the south. Like some in the SPLM, he was afraid that Arab League money would be used to bribe key players in the south to be sympathetic towards al-Bashir’s ruling party.

‘Garang was a fair man who was adamant that the southern Sudanese themselves would decide on whether or not to separate from Khartoum — but obviously his support for a unified Sudan would have carried massive weight.”

But Kuol Deng, a coordinator for an NGO in southern Sudan, believed Garang’s death had ‘opened the field” for those agitating for secession.

‘This will be very dangerous. This is likely to prompt a strong reaction from the GoS [Government of Sudan] ‘Most northerners actually liked John Garang because he wanted unity.”

General Lazaro Sumbeiywo, the former Kenyan army chief who worked with Garang in the peace process for more than a decade, told the M&G he had spoken with Garang shortly before his death. ‘He indicated that he was in constant contact with the warring parties in Darfur. He told me that he would not rest until there was peace across the whole of Sudan.”

Ashworth said Garang’s death had left a ‘dangerous void”.

There are also fears of renewed violence by southern Sudan’s many disparate militias, which owe no allegiance to the peace agreement. They have long despised Garang, stated Ashworth, because of his status in the international community as ‘the only rebel leader in the south”.º