When the dust has settled in Sydney on Saturday, expect to see the Wallabies firmly back in the Tri-Nations picture.
Two weeks have passed since Eddie Jones and his squad flew back home after a mauling in South Africa, and let no one tell you the man who is officially rugby’s smartest coach has spent all this time tearing out his hair in frustration.
Jones has, most likely, been working on a wicked plan to get his team back in the running for the Tri-Nations, which — like every other year — is still about as open as a swinger’s mind.
All the talk about pressure and favourites and how good the Springboks are is becoming a little preposterous. This is how the Tri-Nations works: you play at home, you probably win. You play away from home, you probably lose. It’s a very simple thing and exactly the reason why the tournament usually hinges on a knife edge.
South Africa have won their two home games and this is a good thing, but certainly not an achievement of great significance. The show is very far from over and I wouldn’t be surprised if the bonus points the Springboks gave away come back to haunt them in a big way later.
Yes, there are signs that the current Springbok squad are well on their way to becoming a great one. Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha, in particular, have thrown down the gauntlet to all other lock partnerships currently in action and it is unlikely that they will be eclipsed any time soon.
The Boks’ ability to soak up pressure and remain calm has also increased dramatically — a very good thing. As the side matures, we will hopefully see them also scoring with the same relish they display when executing covering tackles or crippling opposition scrumhalves.
My greatest concern is still the lack of quality tries.
Saying that Test rugby is always tough and close and that tries are scarce is a given — that’s why it’s Test rugby, no? Surely one chooses a side who, through their skilled players and playmakers, are able to whittle down the difficulties inherent in Test rugby and score tries that win matches and tournaments. Intercept tries are nice, but a try coming from a player actually beating his direct opponent through guile or pace is what gives a side confidence.
As things stand now, the Springboks have loads of talent and an awesome amount of courage on defence — I’d love to see them being able to attack with the same amount of skill and bloody-mindedness. Once this happens, and once the tries start coming from moves as well coordinated and planned as their attacking game, we can really start smiling.
Anyhow, the Springboks have done well and deserve their week off, so let’s give them a rest.
I was surprised to see the how badly pressure took its toll on Daniel Carter at Newlands, and I assume the Wallabies were too.
It will be interesting to see how George Gregan and Matt Giteau decide to close Carter down on Saturday. With Stephen Larkham out, Giteau — who was brilliant at inside centre against the Boks in the Mandela Challenge opener — moves in at flyhalf, a position he has filled with distinction for the ACT Brumbies.
Whether Giteau will deal with the pressure of having Aaron Mauger and Carter to cope with is another thing, but I’m pretty confident that he’ll be a touch above his All Black rival, mainly because Gregan is streets ahead of his opposite number, Piri Weepu.
Things should be pretty even on the deck, with Richie McCaw and George Smith going head-to-head in the dirty-work department. On the flipside, referee Tony Spreadbury from England could make things very difficult for whichever fetcher he decides to target on Saturday.
It’s unfortunately so that the hemispherical interpretation of some rules differ quite widely, and if Spreadbury whistles up a tight game, either McCaw or Smith could end up costing their team a half-dozen points.
The line-outs will probably belong to the All Blacks, as Ali Williams and Chris Jack are, in my book, a better pairing than Dan Vickerman and Nathan Sharpe — especially when it comes to tactics of intimidation and physical persuasion — but certainly not by a great margin.
It will be a pretty close affair, as always. But the All Blacks’ relative weakness (if you can call it that) at scrumhalf and the fact that they’re playing in Australia a week after losing in South Africa will see the Wallabies draw first blood in this year’s battle for the Bledisloe Cup.