South Africa is looking forward to a windfall from hosting the 2010 Soccer World Cup, and hopes other top sports events such as the Rugby World Cup and formula-one auto racing will follow.
But questions are being asked about who will really benefit from the promised bonanza in a country still bearing the social and economic scars of apartheid.
Urged by Fifa — soccer’s world governing body — to bring the event to Africa, the rainbow nation won the World Cup bid last year against Morocco and Egypt, thanks in part to concerted campaigning by anti-apartheid icons Nelson Mandela and Desmond Tutu.
It will be the first time Africa has hosted the event — a chance to prove that it has evolved from a ”hopeless continent to a continent of hope”, according to organising chief Danny Jordaan.
”We could see a huge charge for investment engagement in South Africa as a result of the World Cup,” Jordaan told a recent conference on the business potential of major sporting events.
”2010 will be the most profitable World Cup in the history of Fifa after 100 years. Fifa has a tremendous amount of confidence in the economy, political stability and the institutions of this country,” Jordaan.
However, some say it’s Fifa that will be the main winner, taking the cream of the profits thanks to television rights deals worth an anticipated $2,2-billion and sponsorship agreements with the likes of foreign giants Adidas and Hyundai.
Butana Komphela, chairperson of Parliament’s sport and recreation committee, fretted that preference would be given to Fifa sponsors rather than local companies.
”The spin-offs are not as great as we thought,” he told Parliament last week.
The organising committee forecasts the tournament will create 123 000 new jobs — a boon in a country that suffers nearly 30% unemployment. It predicts R17-billion in new investment and an additional R5,6-billion in tax revenue for the government.
Jordaan predicted about 350 000 foreign tourists would flood into the country, compared with the 25 000 who came here for the 1995 Rugby World Cup.
Soccer fans are expected to spend nearly R10-billion on merchandise, accommodation, transport and meals, he said.
‘They are overselling it’
Achille Mbembe, a researcher at the University of Witwatersrand Institute for Social and Economic Research, dismissed those forecasts.
”It’s never as good as they pretend,” he said in a telephone interview. ”They are overselling it, and some of their figures are totally irresponsible.”
Mbembe said the experience of the 2002 Soccer World Cup in Japan and South Korea showed the job-creation forecasts were hugely overestimated. He said tourists who would otherwise have visited South Africa would likely stay away to avoid soccer crowds, and anticipated gains in the hotel and restaurant sector would be mitigated by people staying at home in front of the television rather than eating out.
The construction industry would likely be the biggest beneficiary, he said.
Organisers hope to keep the cost of the proposed 10 stadiums to just R2,5-billion — a 10th of what was spent in Japan and South Korea — by refurbishing existing venues where possible.
In a country were millions still lack decent housing, schools, electricity and piped water, organisers have stressed they want to avoid excessive spending on arenas that will fall idle after the tournament.
Even Mbembe agrees the World Cup will boost investment and tourism in the longer term — as long as South Africa gets the organisation right and takes advantage of the two-month global spotlight.
”If, through the World Cup, we manage to change the way Africa’s face is seen, and our voice is heard, that would be the biggest benefit of all,” Mbembe said. ”We stand for humanity and racial reconciliation in a world where terrorism and violence are the order of the day, and we should embed these values in our celebration of the World Cup.”
Other events
Similar arguments are being used by other sporting bodies.
South Africa hopes the International Rugby Board will select the country in November to host the 2011 World Cup over Japan and New Zealand on the grounds that, thanks to the Soccer World Cup, all the stadiums will be ready, the accommodation and transport links upgraded, the technology tested and the volunteers trained.
Then there is formula-one car racing.
The European stranglehold on formula-one races has been broken by the addition of circuits in China, Malaysia, Bahrain — and this season, Turkey. South Africa hopes formula-one boss Bernie Ecclestone will add Cape Town to the schedule and bring the sport to the African continent.
India and Mexico are also vying for a slot in the grand-prix calendar.
”Formula-one management demonstrably wants it to happen,” said David Gant, chairperson of the formula-one bid committee, which wants Cape Town to host annual races between 2009 and 2015 on a high-tech track proposed for wasteland near the airport.
The government has indicated support, but must pay about 15% of the necessary funds — about R75-million.
Gant quoted a study showing that the proposed new formula-one race would bring 120 000 visitors, 150-million television viewers and inject R1-billion per year into the economy and make a ”great contribution to our African renaissance”.
”We can’t grow more gold, diamonds or make more beaches. We have to optimise the utilisation of them,” said Gant. ”And one way is to attract more people to use these resources and fuel this economic growth.” — Sapa-AP