South Africa’s real gross domestic product (GDP) at market prices on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally annualised and adjusted basis rose by 4,8% in the second quarter of 2005 from 3,5% in the first quarter, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Tuesday.
Stats SA said the main contributors to the increase in economic activity for the second quarter were the manufacturing industry (1,2%); wholesale and retail trade, hotels and restaurants, industry and finance, real estate and business services (0,7% each); the transport, storage and communication industry (0,6%); and agriculture, forestry and fishing, general government services and personal services (0,3% each).
The seasonally adjusted real value added by the non-agricultural industries (excluding the impact of the volatile agriculture industry) increased by 4,7% during the second quarter following an increase of 3,5% in the first quarter of 2005, Stats SA added.
The unadjusted real GDP at market prices increased by 4,5% during the second quarter compared with the second quarter of 2004, following an increase of 4,2% in the first quarter of 2005 compared with the first quarter of 2004.
The unadjusted real GDP at market prices for the first six months of 2005 increased by 4,4% compared with the first six months of 2004.
The economy was expected to have posted growth in GDP of 4,2% on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted annualised basis during the second quarter of 2005, gathering steam from the 3,5% quarter-on-quarter rate recorded during the first quarter of the year, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by I-Net Bridge.
Said Dawie Roodt, chief economist at the Efficient Group: “This is better than our bullish expectations. There is a good chance that we will see 4,5% growth this year. I haven’t analysed the numbers, but I suspect manufacturing is part of the reason for this. There is no need to cut rates in this environment.”
Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec, said: “It’s very, very good — it’s good for equities but neutral for the rand and probably bad for bonds as people will be shifting capital into equities.” — I-Net Bridge