Smaller parties are set to take the major battering when the two-week defection window opens next Wednesday for members of the National Assembly and provincial legislatures.
The parties most like to suffer defections are the United Democratic Movement, the Inkatha Freedom Party and the Independent Democrats. The New National Party is effectively part of the ruling African National Cogress, but six of its seven National Assembly members are set to cross to the ANC, including party leader Marthinus van Schalkwyk. One NNP national MP, Stan Simmons, is expected to join the new United Party.
An almost certain defector will be Themba Sono, the national deputy leader of the ID who questioned the leadership of De Lille and faces a disciplinary action on September 2 — the day after the defection period starts.
De Lille acknowledges that a defection is likely. Sono may move to the Democratic Alliance or start his own party.
DA chief whip Douglas Gibson, who has been wooing potential members, believes the floor-crossing will be a moderate affair. ”I don’t think there will be major floor-crossings this time.” However, he said the ANC and DA would benefit most.
The DA is eyeing the Eastern Cape, where it hopes to dislodge the UDM as official opposition. The UDM has six seats and the DA five.
UDM member Mabandla Gogo — one of five in the legislature approached by the DA — has been suspended by his party for allegedly planning to defect, along with seven officials, two national MPs and four provincial legislature members. Gogo is fighting his suspension in court, and insists that if he wins, he will remain in the UDM. He said he had ”no political differences with Holomisa” but he had been treated badly by his party.
It is unclear whether his colleague Tyrone Liberty will cross to the DA, but he has been vigorously wooed.
The ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal spokesperson, Mtholephi Mthimkhulu, declined to speculate on possible defections in the province. However, the ANC expects at least three IFP members to cross to it in the legislature. UDM provincial chairperson and sole UDM legislature member Bongani Msomi is expected to defect, probably to the ANC. He, too, has been suspended by Holomisa.
Legally, floor crossers must constitute 10% of their caucuses to defect, meaning that in KwaZulu-Natal three Inkatha representatives must cross together — although not necessarily to the same party. The IFP has 30 seats in the 80-seat legislature, the ANC 38.
A defection of this size would give the ANC an overall majority for the first time.
The new National Democratic Convention, led by former IFP national chairman Ziba Jiyane, is looking to lure IFP defectors, but there is no sign that this will occur.
In Parliament, however, IFP MP Gavin Woods is being wooed by both the DA and the ID. Buthelezi recently apologised to him for saying that if he was not disabled, his membership of Parliament would have been ended long ago. This followed public disagreement between the two over a discussion document in which Woods criticised the party’s direction.
Others wooed by the DA are national MPs Len Joubert and Suzanne Vos. The DA has also wooed the ID’s Lance Greyling and Vincent Gore — but both have indicated they will not move.
Three other IFP national MPs Vincent Ngema, Themba Vezi and Makhosazana Mdlalose — are also in Jiyane’s sights.
Significantly, former KwaZulu-Natal Inkatha premier Frank Mdlalose — Makhosazana’s father — appeared at an ”illegal” rally called by Jiyane before he started the new party.
In the Western Cape, the ANC is counting on gaining at least four of five NNP legislature members, pushing its total of seats to 24 in the 42-seat legislature. Already on board are Joyce Witbooi, Pierre Uys, Kobus Dowry and newly sworn in Ellen Prince, the former mayor of Oudtshoorn. The NNP is officially merging with the ANC during this defection period.
Former NNP agriculture provincial minister and now public accounts chairperson Johan Gelderblom said he would announce his new party during the window period. It is speculated that he will join the Freedom Front Plus or DA.
Meanwhile, UDM national MPs deputy leader Malizole Diko and Nomakhaya Mdaka are challenging their suspension in court on Monday. According to documents in the Cape High Court, Diko has plans to form a new party, but the talk in parliamentary corridors is that Holomisa himself is being wooed to return to the ANC.
Buthelezi said at the weekend allowing floor-crossing represented ”the thinning of democracy” and the ”thickening” of a one-party state.
A mess called Max
The interminable saga of the Western Cape legislature seat of Lennit Max, the one-time Independent Democrats leader who has fought expulsion for more than eight months, is again before the courts.
It has long been an open secret that Max wants to take his seat to the Democratic Alliance. At one stage there was speculation that Max would trade his seat for nomination as the DA’s Cape Town mayoral candidate.
However, this plan — said to be hatched by DA Western Cape leader Theuns Botha — was rejected by the Cape Town caucus. DA city leader Kent Morkel has lobbied for the post; Belinda Walker has also been touted as a candidate; while some on the DA’s liberal flank want MP Helen Zille to stand.
Gaining Max’s seat will not change the power balance in the Western Cape legislature: the African National Congress holds 22 of the 42 seats with the recently announced defection to it of three of the five New National Party members.
Max’s notice of intention to interdict his expulsion from the ID was faxed at 11.57pm on Monday to the office of Western Cape speaker Shaun Byneveldt, who found the documents on arrival at his office at 9.35 the following morning.
As ID members congregated for the swearing in of the new MPL, Neville Hendricks, Byneveldt was informed that Max’s lawyers were waiting for him with the interdict.
The ID and the Western Cape speaker’s office are opposing Max’s court bid.
This is the third time Max has approached the Cape High Court. In January, the court ordered an independent disciplinary inquiry; earlier this month it rejected a bid to remove the independent chairperson. — Marianne Merten