Iraq took a historic gamble on Sunday when the ruling Shia and Kurdish coalition bulldozed over the objections of Sunni Arabs to finish a new Constitution.
Frantic efforts to reach a consensus collapsed when a blueprint for a new democratic state which lacked the support of Sunni leaders was submitted to Parliament, triggering what promised to be a bitter referendum battle.
Months of talks and weeks of deadlock ended when government officials gave up trying to placate Sunni negotiators, despite warnings of greater violence and inflamed sectarian tension.
President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, declared the document complete. ”The Constitution is left to our people to approve or reject it. I hope that our people will accept it despite some flaws.”
He said all sides had reservations about the charter and rejection in the referendum on October 15 would not derail the political process. ”This is part of democracy. If the people do not approve it, we will draft another Constitution.”
Some analysts were less sanguine and said Kurds and Shias had thrown down a gauntlet to Sunnis, a restive minority driving the insurgency, risking greater bloodshed as well as the legitimacy of a document which is supposed to unite the country.
Fearing precisely that, the United States lobbied hard for consensus. United States President George Bush phoned a Shia leader last week seeking concessions to bring the Sunnis on board.
In a statement on Sunday night Bush conceded: ”Of course, there are disagreements. That’s their right.” He added: ”We’re watching a political process unfold.”
But he warned: ”We can expect … atrocities to increase in the coming months because the enemy knows that its greatest defeat lies in the expression of free people in freely enacted laws and at the ballot box.”
The US ambassador to Baghdad, Zalmay Khalilzad, said the stakes were high. ”If the Sunnis do not buy into this draft then it would be a problem. It could assist the insurgency.”
The European Union welcomed the charter and British Prime Minister Tony Blair called it an important and historic achievement.
The 15 Sunnis on the 71-member Constitution committee said they rejected the charter because it enshrined federalism, undermined Iraq’s Arab identity and threatened those who had served in Saddam Hussein’s Ba’athist regime.
Last minute amendments failed to allay their fears that Iraq would be parcelled into semi-autonomous regions which would marginalise Sunnis in the centre where there is no oil and give Iran sway over the Shia south.
In a joint statement the Sunni panel members urged the Arab League, the United Nations and international organisations to intervene to block the document. Sunni regimes such as Saudi Arabia are known to be uneasy at their sect’s alienation in Iraq.
A leading Sunni negotiator, Salah al-Mutliq, urged supporters to use peaceful means but hinted at a backlash. ”I think if this Constitution passes as it is, it will worsen everything in the country.”
The last-minute concessions did win over some Sunnis, including the Vice-President, Ghazi al-Yawer, though in apparent evidence of unease, he shunned the signing ceremony, citing illness. The excuse prompted laughter from his Shia colleagues.
The Iraqi Islamic party and some other influential Sunni groups did not immediately respond, raising the possibility of a split Sunni vote.
The 15 Sunni panel members who so vocally rejected the draft were appointed, not elected, said western diplomats, and the next six weeks of campaigning would reveal whether they spoke for their community.
There is little doubt that many Sunnis oppose the Constitution. In recent days the Muslim Scholars’ Association and tribal Sunni leaders mobilised thousands of protesters, including some who carried pictures of Saddam Hussein and chanted for the unity of Iraq.
Sunnis comprise a fifth of the 26-million population but, thanks to a provision originally intended to give Kurds a veto, a two-thirds majority in three of Iraq’s 18 provinces will torpedo the referendum. Sunnis are thought to be a majority in four.
A tactical alliance with followers of Moqtada al-Sadr, a maverick Shia cleric who is as hostile to federalism as he is to Shia rivals in the government, would boost the prospects of a veto. Secular groups uneasy at the constitution’s Islamist bent may also join a no vote.
About five-million copies of the draft are due to be printed and distributed in the coming days, followed by a government-sponsored television, radio and newspaper publicity drive urging a yes vote.
The campaign will test the relationship between the ruling class, largely sheltered in Baghdad’s green zone, and a population that considers security, electricity and clean water a more urgent task than a new set of laws.
A government spokesperson, Laith Kubba, admitted that the Constitution could fall but said the upside was that Sunnis, who boycotted the January election, would have been lured into mainstream politics.
”If that is the price to pay, we lose six months and have to start [the Constitution] again, then it is worth it.” – Guardian Unlimited Â