Four weeks after the Iraqi parliamentary elections, it remains unclear whether a government of national unity will be formed.
Even United States President George Bush, normally optimistic when speaking about Iraq, is showing caution, referring in a speech to US military veterans to the political turmoil to be expected in Iraq over the weeks ahead leading up to the formation of a government.
There is still no official result, even though representatives of the bigger parties are already negotiating over the composition of the new government.
The possibility cannot be excluded that the various religious, ethnic and political factions will once again drift apart, leading to a renewed escalation of violence.
The first hurdle for Iraqi politicians to overcome is the conflict over alleged electoral fraud. An independent team is currently investigating this.
Initial unofficial results gave the Shi’ite alliance and the Kurdish parties a joint majority in the new Parliament, but this is being contested by the Sunni parties and by Ayad Allawi, who heads a secular Shi’ite grouping.
In third place was the Sunni Iraqi Accord Front, followed by Allawi’s grouping.
Once this obstacle is out of the way, the three questions that have dominated political debate for two years rear their heads: How large a role should the Sunni minority that dominated under Saddam Hussein play? When should the foreign troops leave? Will Shi’ite and Kurdish demands for federalism threaten the unity of Iraq?
The results of the political negotiations regarding the new government will certainly affect the security situation.
Kurds and Shi’ites alike have made no secret of their hope that Sunni participation will lead to a reduction in the level of violence.
They, along with the US military, are hoping that this could lead to an opening up of divisions between militant insurgents opposed to what they see as occupation by the US-led forces and the Islamist terror groups.
The hope is that Abu Mussab al-Zarkawi and his al-Qaeda followers could be isolated.
The problem is that the fronts have changed little since the beginning of 2003.
The political leaders of the Shi’ites and the Kurds, whose fate is closely entwined with the US military presence, are warning that a precipitate withdrawal of foreign troops could lead to greater bloodshed.
Influential Sunnis, like Adnan Dulaimi, chairperson of the Iraqi Accord Front, believe on the other hand that the presence of the foreign forces is the main reason behind the continuing violence.
At a major Islamic festival this week, Dulaimi said that Iraq’s Sunnis and Shi’ites would live together in brotherly unity ”only once the occupation forces have left the country”.
And the council of Sunni religious leaders used the same occasion to wish Iraqis ”freedom from occupation, suppression and tyranny”. — Sapa-dpa