Four months ago it was the tardy disarmament process that delayed elections in Côte d’Ivoire. Installed as Prime Minister in December, Charles Konan Banny was expected to prioritise this. But new and highly divisive political wrangles have put the brakes on his quest.
The fight has shifted from the four-year standoff between the government and the rebels to President Laurent Gbagbo and the prime minister he fears might be squeezing him out.
Gbagbo’s supporters last month besieged units of the 7 000 United Nations peacekeepers in Abidjan and other centres. Five people died in street clashes and the UN withdrew non-essential staff. The demonstrations were sparked by an international mediation group call to dissolve Parliament. The legislature’s mandate expired in December, but it is Gbagbo’s last power base. Mamadou Koulibably, the speaker of the legislature, leads the ruling party.
Recently, Gbagbo unilaterally extended the Parliament’s tenure, earning him a rebuke from UN Secretary General Kofi Annan.
Gbagbo himself is living on borrowed time. His mandate as interim president expired last October but was extended by 12 months, by which time elections should have been held.
Rebel leader Guillaume Soro, a member of Konan Banny’s government of national unity named in late December, wants nothing to do with the revived Parliament. Soro did not attend last week’s Cabinet meeting, claiming his safety in Abidjan was compromised by the street violence.
‘As a result of this, the disarmament process, which remains the priority for peace, has slowed down even further,†says Henry Boshoff, military analyst at the Institute for Security Studies in Pretoria. He has urged President Thabo Mbeki as mediator and Congolese President Denis Sassou Nguesso, the new AU president, to intervene.
Mbeki recently dispatched a team led by Minister of Defence Mosiuoa Lekota to Côte d’Ivoire with a brief to check on progress towards elections. In effect, Lekota, who is increasingly being charged with tough follow-up missions, went to hold Gbagbo’s feet to the fire.
The president is no stranger to South African pressure. At the start of Mbeki’s mediation in November 2004, he alleged that the South African leader was biased towards the rebel New Forces. But, three months ago, Lekota told journalists that Gbagbo had complied with every step required in the run-up to elections. Soro swiftly denounced Mbeki as partial to Gbagbo and refused to have further dealings with him.
The rebel leader has maintained this attitude and indicated he will not see the South African team. ‘If we are not welcome now, I am sure we will be welcome in the future,†Lekota retorted, after meetings with Gbagbo, Konan Banny and leaders of political parties.
Members of the UN Security Council have threatened sanctions against anyone who obstructs the peace process. Top of the list for such punishment is Charles Ble Goude, the militant leader of the Ivorian ruling party’s youth wing, who led last month’s protests. With Gbagbo’s tacit support, he is focusing on the issue of disarmament. He vowed that his supporters would take to the streets again if its disarmament demands were not met.
Ble Goude has given Banny a two-week ultimatum for disarming the rebels.