With vibrant economies and more than a billion people each, China and India might seem obvious candidates for the Group of Eight (G8), but analysts say the road to membership will be long.
Russia is now heading the G8 for the first time, inevitably triggering questions about why the two Asian giants have not joined long ago.
China must look on from the sidelines, although it has an economy that is roughly five times larger than Russia’s.
A G8 finance ministers’ meeting in Moscow on Friday and Saturday will group Russia with what were once seen as the world’s mightiest economies: Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States.
China officially became the world’s fourth largest economy after recording GDP growth of 9,9% last year, and is a top priority for most nations when they look at their trade strategies.
Its official stance, repeated by local government-employed researchers, is a pronounced lack of interest in membership.
“It’s not the right time for China to join,” said Niu Jun, an international relations scholar at Beijing University, citing the oft-quoted argument that a developing country does not belong in a group of industrialised nations.
Even so China’s views are shifting away from a traditional dismissal of the G8 as a rich man’s club, according to observers.
Partly this is because the current generation of leaders around President Hu Jintao places greater emphasis on relations with industrialised nations.
But its entry into the World Trade Organisation in late 2001, made possible only after opening its economy wider to foreign competition, may cause some renewed hesitation.
“China would now like to enjoy G8 member status but is wary of a new vehicle for concessions,” said Jane Skanderup, an expert on the Asian political economy at the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Using membership as a bait, the G8 could try to press China on revaluing its currency or even on democratisation, she said.
While not enthusiastically pursuing the G8, China actively seeks to promote other multilateral forums where it can shine more easily, according to Ralph Cossa, director of Honolulu-based think tank Pacific Forum CSIS.
“China attaches priority to new forums where it can increase its diplomatic profile, especially among its neighbours, and preferably when it is the biggest kid at the party,” he said.
One instance of this is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which groups China with Russia and a cluster of small Central Asian republics, he said.
In contrast to China’s lukewarm attitude towards the G8, India seems to be all in favour of membership.
“India would like to be part of the G8 if invited. But it’s up to the G8 to decide on expanding the group and include whoever it wants,” said a senior New Delhi government official, who asked not to be named.
That leaves the issue of what the G8 itself thinks about inviting a large new country.
Russia’s recent decision to use its energy exports as a political weapon against Ukraine may serve as a warning.
“Russia’s energy shenanigans with the Ukraine has alerted G8 members to the hazards of prematurely extending membership to an ‘immature’ democracy and economy,” said Skanderup.
Cossa also said that the G8 is, in principle, a gathering of free-market democracies and China does not fall into either category.
Individual members might also have their own reasons to prevent Chinese entry, including Japan which is arguably China’s top rival in the region, he said. – AFP