British Prime Minister Tony Blair could be forced into naming the day he will step aside if Thursday’s key local elections go any worse than predicted for his scandal-hit Labour Party.
Experts predict that after nine years in power, Blair’s centre-left party is set for a pounding at the polls, mired in crises of their own making: sex scandals, foreign prisoners released back on the streets, a cash-for-honours row and sapping public-sector confidence.
Poor results from the elections to 4 361 out of 19 579 English municipal council seats could push Blair into a major Cabinet reshuffle, with the ministers floundering in crises — key Blair allies — the most likely to get the chop.
Bad results could also force him to post-date his own resignation letter, as he has pledged not to stand for a fourth term in office at the next general election, due by May 2010 at the latest.
Blair’s eager Finance Minister Gordon Brown is his presumed successor.
The BBC compared Blair’s miserable situation to that of former Conservative prime minister Margaret Thatcher, who was ousted by her MPs in 1990, part-way through her third term in office and six months after bad local-election results.
More than half the British electorate, about 23-million people, are eligible to vote in elections to 176 local authorities. Turnout is traditionally low, but this time the stakes are high.
Labour will lose control of nine mostly suburban councils of the 15 London authorities it is defending, according to spread-betting experts Sporting Index.
It also forecast that Labour will lose 260 councillors across England, forcing Blair to make four changes in senior Cabinet positions.
The vote will be seen as a referendum on Labour’s latest woes, but will also be scrutinised for the performance of the major opposition parties as their new leaders face their first electoral test in charge.
The performance of the tiny far-right British National Party (BNP) will also be noted, amid predictions it could make a significant breakthrough in urban areas.
The main opposition Conservatives are hoping to be the main beneficiaries of any backlash against Labour with leader David Cameron keen to make progress on the Tories’ long, hard road back to power.
Aged 39, Cameron has tried to present himself as a modernising fresh face and has focused almost exclusively on environmental issues in a bid to recapture the middle-class voters who voted Blair into office in 1997.
Some criticised the deliberate silence on traditional Tory rightist issues such as tax, crime, Europe and illegal immigration — and his leadership will be questioned if the Conservatives do not directly benefit from a Labour slump.
The Financial Times newspaper said the Tories must capture the suburban London boroughs of Croydon, Kingston, Harrow and Ealing to prove they can win the next general election.
Cameron also needs to prove he can win over voters in Liverpool, Manchester and Newcastle, cities where the party has no councillors.
Veteran Menzies Campbell, the new Liberal Democrat leader, will also hope to sweep up votes from disgruntled Labour supporters.
However, the BNP is also confident of cashing in on voters left behind in the main parties’ three-way scrap for the middle-class centre ground.
The tabloid Daily Star predicted: “Ballots to Blair: Working class to kick his ass”.
The polls opened at 7am local time and were to close at 10pm, with the first results expected within a few hours. — AFP