Close political allies of African National Congress deputy president Jacob Zuma are preparing to relaunch his presidential campaigns in a series of tripartite alliance forums in the next few months.
These campaigns include pressing for his reinstatement as South Africa’s deputy president if he is cleared of the corruption charges, or the charges are thrown out on an application planned by his defence.
There are also moves afoot to hijack the ANC’s policy conference in December and turn it into a platform to discuss President Thabo Mbeki’s perceived poor leadership of the party. An extreme suggestion is that it be converted into an elective congress where fresh leaders are chosen.
Zuma was visibly emboldened by his acquittal on Monday, although some of his most loyal supporters say the rape trial has irreparably damaged his chances in the race for the ANC leadership.
His acquittal and subsequent apology for his actions, notably having- had sex with an HIV-positive woman, were clearly part of a drive to repair his standing and to offset the political damage suffered as a result of his utterances in court.
Zuma’s comeback has sparked concern among some national executive committee (NEC) members who endorse Mbeki’s stated wish for the next president to be a woman. In a media conference the day after his acquittal Zuma reduced this to a personal opinion, saying ANC structures would decide.
Mbeki’s suggestion is viewed by Zuma’s supporters as an attempt to continue exerting control even when he is no longer president.
On Sunday the ANC’s NEC will meet in Zuma’s absence to decide whether he should resume his duties as the party’s second-in-command.
Zuma has informed ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe that he is available to resume ‘duties and participation in the leading structures of the ANC — the NEC, the National Working Committee, the officials’ meetings and the National Deployment Committeeâ€. Motlanthe said this was not a foregone conclusion. ‘The NEC has to consider and pronounce itself on it. He will have to await the final position of the ANC.â€
When Zuma was charged with rape in December he withdrew from his duties as ANC deputy president, working only as an ‘ordinary memberâ€.
Mbeki dismissed Zuma as national deputy president last year after the Durban High Court found he had a ‘generally corrupt relationship†with convicted fraudster Schabir Shaik. This sparked a wave of outraged anti-Mbeki sentiment among Zuma’s supporters.
This week a group of Zuma supporters in the Tripartite Alliance leadership structures insisted that if Zuma was acquitted after his corruption trial, due in July, or if Zuma’s legal team succeeds in having the charges dropped, they would lead a charge for him to be reinstated as the country’s deputy president. This was because the reason for his removal would fall away.
Said a youth leader: ‘The corruption trial was the basis of his firing, so he must be given back his position if he is not guilty. Mbeki should have suspended him but not replaced him with Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, as this might create a crisis for him. But you know the president, he might argue that he has the prerogative.â€
At a press conference on the day after his acquittal, Zuma said he ‘unconditionally apologise[d] to all this people of this country,†for ‘err[ing] in having unprotected sexâ€.
His statement, shot through with sideswipes at the media and claims of a political conspiracy against him, clearly signalled his re-entry into the ANC leadership contest.
He said he was ready to ‘serve†the ANC in any position assigned to him. ‘Me, I am ready for any task the ANC gives me,†he said.
It is understood that the South African Communist Party is to intensify its support for Zuma using SACP activities to build momentum towards his corruption trial. In particular, the party’s 85th anniversary celebrations in the same month would be used to galvanise support.
Communists who support Zuma’s candidacy, understood to be led by secretary general Blade Nzimande and the Young Communist League, feel they have been ‘vindicated†by Zuma’s acquittal, said a party insider.
The SACP has been torn between out-and-out supporters of Zuma and those who believe the party should withdraw public support for him until the graft trial is over.
The party insider said that while the party accepted the rape trial outcome, there was a feeling among some members that the SACP’s central committee, emboldened by the verdict, might become too embroiled in the succession issue. This potentially threatened the party’s indendence.
An SACP paper circulating in the party has kick-started debate about whether it should back a particular ANC presidential candidate or maintain its historically neutral stance.
‘Why is the party not putting forward communist candidates, rather than supporting a compromised candidate?†a central committee member asked this week.
The Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu), largely silent during the the rape trial, is also to reaffirm its public support for Zuma at his corruption trial, in line with a resolution last August that ‘whenever Comrade Zuma appears in court, our people will demonstrate en masseâ€.
However, Cosatu’s support is complicated by the fact that it is holding its elective congress in September, where leaders vying for nomination could capitalise on the current leadership’s handling of the Zuma issue and the ambivalence of many unionists — particularly over Zuma’s conduct in relation to women and Aids.
Four senior alliance leaders, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that while Zuma’s acquittal gave credence to the widely held view that Mbeki’s camp was conspiring to oust Zuma from the succession race, the deputy president may have been too badly damaged by his trial testimony, including the infamous ‘shower†disclosure.
‘His hand has been enormously strengthened by the acquittal, whether this can reverse all the damage done by comments he made about his private life is a matter we will have to decide,†said a senior alliance leader.
‘It is wrong to say that his presidential chances have been dealt a fatal blow, but there was a huge amount of damage done, which has made people very uncomfortable and put [many of his supporters] terribly on the back foot.â€
The source said many people feared that supporting another candidate would subject that person to the same political targeting as Zuma.
‘There is a sense that this acquittal proves that the rape trial was part and parcel of a political conspiracy. Some people feel that if they withdraw their support for Zuma, they will be falling into that agenda.â€
In the Eastern Cape, the province likely to hold the most weight at the ANC’s congress next July, the unofficial position is that Zuma should maintain a leadership role in the party but not stand as president. The province could, however, revise its position at its conference in September.
A document that has circulated in the Eastern Cape party warns against an ‘over-individualised transition [cult of personalities] in which social forces contest around individual personalities rather than clearly articulated ideological and class positionsâ€.
A senior Gauteng leader said that while the province did not generally support Zuma, the ANC deputy president could find fertile ground among people who have been disillusioned by the local-government list process.
‘There is general anger that the NEC members deployed to support us during elections did not pitch up. They seemed preoccupied with the Zuma matter, yet failed to provide leadership on that also. We had to wait for a court to give us guidance,†he said.