Do not believe those members of the party who, because it is their job to do so, deny it. The African National Congress is in crisis. But equally, do not make the mistake of thinking that the ANC has not faced crisis before, because it has — and it has survived to tell the tale.
Political parties represent, like marriage, the victory of hope over reason. There are bound to be squabbles and divisions; the only question worth asking is whether divorce is inevitable.
Extraordinary though its place in history is, the ANC cannot now evade the ordinary. Before, it could mask the divisions more easily behind liberation-movement secrecy. Now, it is compelled to issue public statements as groundbreaking as Monday’s when, after last weekend’s crucial national executive committee (NEC) meeting, it conceded the depth of the problem: “The NEC recognises that events of the last few weeks and months have tested the unity, cohesion and standing of the ANC.”
Has the ANC ever offered such a simple yet profound statement of its internal difficulties?
Jacob Zuma is the figure around whom these epic moments in the ANC’s history now pivot. Is the ANC really going to continue to allow itself to suffer for the sins of its deputy president? Apparently so: his campaign to be the next president is now running at full tilt. It is an open field; no other candidate dare declare their interest, let alone compete openly — which is part of the problem.
Internal warfare of the most toxic kind is on the horizon. Zuma’s financial probity and sex life have been exposed. His placemen ask: Why just his? It is a slippery slope; if the floodgates open to a torrent of unfettered personal attacks then the ANC’s core values will face further serious erosion.
In this climate, it is hard to not be a council of despair. As the unusually prolix NEC statement admitted, the image of the movement has been damaged by the rape trial and “may have contributed to uncertainty … across broader society”. The quality of South Africa’s democracy, at least in its consolidating phase, was always going to be inextricably linked with the capacity of the ANC to maintain its own rich, democratic tendencies.
The norms of the ANC dictate that individuals should act as a part of a collective and should not fight internal political battles in public. Zuma is acting in defiance of this culture — and not just in recent weeks. Last year Zuma allowed his supporters to disrupt the ANC national general council in Pretoria. News of his Libyan fundraising exploits has caused further anger among many NEC members. And by permitting his supporters to appeal to Zulu ethnicity, Zuma has turned decades-long friends into detractors. The legal strategy and the detail of his own evidence in the rape trial have further dented confidence in his judgement.
Because Zuma is the only candidate who is campaigning, one can be forgiven for overestimating his levels of support and underestimating the obstacles that stand in his way.
Nonetheless, despite Jeremy Cronin’s elegant argument in favour of a considered debate about what kind of presidency the country deserves (“What kind of presidency?” May 26), the horse has already bolted.
In this context, the support of the general secretary of the South African Communist Party, Blade Nzimande and, to a less unequivocal extent, the Congress of South African Trade Unions, for Zuma is perplexing. At worst, it is playground politics of the most immature sort: your enemy’s enemy is your friend. At best, it is crude entryism: using Zuma as a Trojan horse to “retake” the ANC and create space for the alliance-warriors hidden inside to reclaim its lost socialist soul.
If this is the case, then it is hard to imagine a more flawed vehicle and, therefore, a more flawed strategy.
Instead of leading the debate, the left wing of the ANC alliance looks tragically absurd, at the very moment not only of the much-publicised “battle for the soul of the ANC” but also for the soul of government — a model based on stable management of the economy, gradual growth and development, and a strong, non-racial capitalist class.
This not only raises the stakes but encourages some to see hope where there likely will only be chaos. The new establishment’s mettle will be tested; I expect it to prevail even if its principal architect’s sting has been drawn.
Until now, Mbeki’s vision, tactical wit and capacity for holding together the ANC and the government have prevailed. But the negative effects of his political technique may now be catching up with him. At the beginning of the week, he reportedly claimed he had been the subject of a concerted attempt to overthrow him. Given the crude disingenuousness of the false-plot allegations used to sideline Cyril Ramaphosa, Mathews Phosa and Tokyo Sexwale in 2001, it is impossible to resist comparing Mbeki with Matilda — this time his cries of “Fire!” may not be heeded.
The president has always been fond of posing one of Yeats’s favourite questions: Will the centre hold? He should not be the only one reflecting on the fact that now, more than ever, is the time for an answer.