Without opposition-led mass action, Mugabe will not shift an inch
Fresh demands by the opposition for Zimbabwe’s President Robert Mugabe to accept a new Constitution and elections to avert a Ukraine-style uprising against his government are an olive branch that will find no taker unless backed by nationwide street protests, according to analysts.
The leader of the mainstream opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), Morgan Tsvangirai, last week unveiled what he said was a road map to ending Zimbabwe’s unprecedented political and economic crises.
The road map includes demands that Mugabe accept a new Constitution and that he step down for a transitional government to take over and organise fresh elections under international supervision. The MDC, in alliance with national civic society, will resort to mass action if the 82-year-old president refuses to accept its demands, according to Tsvangirai.
But University of Zimbabwe political-science lecturer and Mugabe critic John Makumbe says the veteran president will ”definitely ignore” the demands by the opposition and its civic allies unless they first demonstrate on the ground through nationwide street protests that they wield enough power to endanger his government.
”Without evident show of their power on the ground, Mugabe would definitely ignore them,” Makumbe told independent news service ZimOnline.
Makumbe says Mugabe and his government are probably at their most desperate moment, with inflation running above 1 000% and food shortages stalking the country.
But he says that even then, the Zimbabwean leader will rather negotiate with Britain and the European Union than with an opposition party he essentially believes is a puppet of the West — unless, of course, there is enough mass pressure on the ground.
Mugabe often accuses the MDC — which was forged six years ago by Tsvangirai out of the labour movement and various civic society movements — of being a front for Western powers out to dethrone his government as punishment after he seized white farms for redistribution to landless blacks.
Addressing journalists in Harare last Friday, Tsvangirai — who initially in March vowed to roll out nationwide anti-government mass demonstrations without any pre-conditions — said the demands outlined in the new road map are an attempt to a find a legal and peaceful way to resolve Zimbabwe’s deepening crisis.
Tsvangirai unveiled his road map in the wake of mounting pressure from the domestic front and the international community, including United Secretary General Kofi Annan, on Mugabe to act to resolve Zimbabwe’s political and economic crises.
Annan was recently quoted in the international media as saying he still had plans to visit Harare, with sources saying the UN chief planned to ask Mugabe to leave power in return for massive international aid for Zimbabwe and guarantees that the ageing president would not be prosecuted for crimes committed while he was in office.
Many analysts say Annan may be the only hope left for Zimbabwe, firstly because Mugabe might find the offer for immunity from prosecution too tempting to resist and would therefore agree to step down.
Secondly, the analysts see little hope in the MDC marshalling enough power to arm-twist Mugabe to change, saying the opposition party is too weak after it split last year. They also say the possibility of a ruthless clampdown by the army on mass protests means that such as route is unsafe and unpredictable as an option against Mugabe and his government.
But Harare media and political analyst Takura Zhangazha is adamant that Mugabe will not give in to demands or road maps from Tsvangirai — or even Annan — unless the opposition and its civic allies begin to threaten his hold on power actively through mass action.
Zhangazha says: ”Mugabe has reached a stage where he cannot budge to documents such as road maps and position papers. To arm-twist Mugabe, the MDC needs to show him that they have the people and the power on the ground.
”They need to show their popular support on the ground … and the protests have to be massive and nationwide if they are to have any significance to the regime.”
Zimbabwe is grappling with a multilayered crisis characterised by high inflation of 1 193,5% and shortages of food, fuel, electricity, essential medicines and just about every basic survival commodity.
The Southern African country had one of Africa’s brightest economies at independence from Britain in 1980, but now has the world’s fastest-shrinking economy outside a war zone, while half of its 12-million people survive on food handouts from international aid agencies.
The MDC and Western governments blame Zimbabwe’s crisis on repression and mismanagement by Mugabe — a charge the president denies. — ZimOnline