Chad and Sudan’s frosty relations are expected to plumb new lows following Chadian Foreign Minister Ahmat Allami’s statement that Sudan’s role in its conflict be investigated by the United Nations Security Council.
The security council is no stranger to the conflict in Sudan. At the end of April it slapped travel and financial sanctions on pro-Khartoum militia leaders who were accused of being responsible for atrocities in the Darfur region of western Sudan. China, Russia and Qatar abstained in a vote on the resolution that imposed these sanctions.
Analysts say this points to the fact that China — fingered by a recently released Amnesty International report as selling military aircraft and trucks to Khartoum –will veto any unfavourable security council resolution on Sudan.
Elijah Mushemeza, an analyst at Kampala’s University of Makerere in Uganda, said that at this stage the Sudanese government is “vulnerable” to any moves by the international community following weekend claims by Chad’s President Idriss Deby that Sudan is “exporting war” to its territory.
Mushemeza argued that if Chad took this up with the security council it could give the international community strength to “push Sudan further to accept the UN resolutions” that have been passed against it. He said it is in its interests and in the interests of peace to cooperate with the UN.”
Gwinyayi Dzinesa, a doctoral fellow at the International Relations department at Wits University, believes China and Russia would support the government of Sudan. He said there was a “precedent that the security council won’t take action. The UN once set August 30 2004 as the deadline for the government of Sudan to disarm the pro-government militia or face sanctions. The deadline passed without the Sudanese government implementing this, yet no sanctions applied.”
Timothy Othieno, an analyst at the Institute for Global Governance, said that taking up the issue with the security council would show the international community the gravity of the issue, but this alone would not resolve the crisis.
The relationship between Deby and Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir’s regime is at an all-time low following the cutting of diplomatic relations on April 14. This after armed groups, whichDeby claims are sponsored by Sudan, launched a dawn raid on the capital. The rebels were repelled in a bloody battle that left up to 300 rebels and troops dead.