South Africa’s population was estimated at approximately 47,4-million at mid-year 2006, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Tuesday.
In addition, Stats SA said the estimated overall HIV-prevalence rate is approximately 11%, from less than 9% in 2001, with the HIV-positive population estimated at approximately 5,2-million. This compares with the UNAids (United Nations Programme on HIV and Aids) estimate of 5,5-million.
The HIV-prevalence rate is highest among women aged 15 to 49, with the overall prevalence rate of this group at 20%.
Stats SA said the release uses the cohort-component methodology to estimate the 2006 mid-year population and the estimates explicitly account for HIV and Aids.
Stats SA said 51% — approximately 24,1-million — of the population is female. A figure of 79,5% of the population — or 37,7-million — is African, 8,9% — or 4,2-million — is coloured, 2,5% — or 1,2-million — is Indian/Asian and 9,2% — or 4,4-million — is white.
There are approximately 15,3-million children (32%) aged 0 to 14 years and approximately 3,7-million people older than 60 years (7,7%) in the population.
Kwazulu-Natal has the largest share of the South African population, with just over 20% of the total living in this province, Stats SA said. This is followed by Gauteng and Eastern Cape. The Northern Cape has the smallest population, followed by Free State.
For 2006, life expectancy at birth is estimated at approximately 49 years for males and 53 years for females, it said. Life expectancy at birth for females is the highest in the Western Cape (67 years) and lowest in Kwazulu-Natal (less than 50 years). For Gauteng, life expectancy at birth is estimated at 54 years for males and 57 years for females.
Stats SA said the release assumes a mother-to-child transmission rate — the proportion of babies born to HIV-positive mothers who will also become HIV-positive — of 32% if no HIV-treatment programme is followed and 11% if such a programme is in place.
The data also reveals that fertility declined from an average of 2,9 children per woman in 2001 to 2,7 children by 2006.
Stats SA added that the rate of growth has been declining steadily between 2001 and 2006. The overall growth rate for 2005 to 2006 is estimated at 1,06%, compared with 1,17% in 2004 to 2005 and 1,19% in 2003 to 2004. In 2001 to 2002 it stood at 1,25%.
The cohort-component methodology is used for all long-term global population projections. Initial populations for countries are grouped into cohorts defined by age and sex, and the projection proceeds by updating the population of each age- and sex-specific group according to assumptions about three components of population change: fertility, mortality, and migration. — I-Net Bridge