South Africa looks increasingly headed towards two centres of power, with Jacob Zuma assuming the ANC presidency, but releasing the country’s reins to a compromise candidate more acceptable to the general populace.
Debate has already started in the ANC over a dual-power scenario. And some members of the party’s national executive committee (NEC) are known to have engaged the ANC Youth League, a key component of the Zuma support camp, in a bid to win it over. The league has so far vehemently opposed parallel power centres and has pressed for Zuma to take both posts.
However, it is now understood to be open to debate on the issue, given the backlash against some of Zuma’s public utterances. In an unusual move the league, on Wednesday, distanced itself from his outburst against gays.
On Thursday, Cosatu and the SACP, also staunch Zuma supporters, refused to comment on the issue. Zuma has since apologised for the remarks.
While the withdrawal of corruption and fraud charges against Zuma and his rape acquittal have moved him to pole position as the future ANC leader, it remains unclear whether ANC members will risk electoral support by nominating him for the country’s presidency in the 2009 elections.
The ANC has about 500 000 members, but more than 10-million non-members voted for the party in the 2004 national and 2006 local elections.
In addition to the unions and the SACP, Zuma has demonstrated his support across alliance structures in KwaZulu-Natal, but the jury is still out on whether he has nationwide appeal.
Senior ANC officials say they are working hard to find a credible candidate for the country’s presidency. They add that they will allow Zuma to go on campaigning if he chooses to, but will not give him credibility by opposing him.
A senior ANC official said Zuma would exhaust himself as he was unlikely to sustain the victimology message until the ANC’s national conference in December next year. ‘Once it becomes clear whom we have chosen, they will be campaigning inside the party structures — not in Cosatu or outside structures,†the official said.
Within the broad Zuma front, the most likely compromise candidate to run the country is secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe. But businessperson and former Gauteng premier Tokyo Sexwale has also been touted as a candidate acceptable to the youth league and particularly those with business aspirations.
Sexwale recently addressed the 62nd league conference, where he questioned why speculation about the ANC succession race was confined to Mbeki and Zuma.
Meanwhile, developments this week underscored the support Zuma can expect from ANC luminaries who have been sidelined or jailed as a result of investigations by the Scorpions. They include former Limpopo premier Ngoako Ramatlhodi, once tipped for a Cabinet post, but consigned to the political wilderness after the Scorpions investigated him over alleged corruption, and former ANC chief whip Tony Yengeni, serving a four-year sentence for defrauding Parliament.
A member of the ANC’s NEC, Ramatlhodi also lost out on the position of head of the National Prosecuting Authority, for which he seemed destined.
At the weekend Ramatlhodi arrived uninvited at a Free State provincial council meeting in Bloemfontein, where he attacked party president Mbeki and declared that people were being targeted by the prosecuting authorities for no reason. ‘What is this shit? People are being targeted for nothing, look at what happened to Zuma, Yengeni and [former Free State ANC secretary] Pat Matosa,†he allegedly said.
Ramatlhodi is reported to have told the meeting that Mbeki was the cause of division in the ANC and boasted about challenging the latter’s autocratic leadership style.
Ramatlhodi has frequently been at Zuma’s side in recent months. It is believed he rushed to Bloemfontein to counter an earlier presentation to the meeting by ANC national working committee member Joel Netshitenzhe, a close Mbeki ally. Ramatlhodi was not scheduled to speak, but apparently said he had been sent by Motlanthe.
Netshitenzhe had presented his discussion document, Challenges of Leadership, which looks at the different leadership scenarios available to the party over the next few years.
But some at the meeting believed he had used the discussion to attack Zuma, without mentioning him by name. The presentation included an attack on the SACP for moving away from its original ideological position.
The provincial general council was attended by about 700 branch and regional delegates, many of whom will be voting delegates at next year’s ANC conference.
Eish, I’m sorry … again
‘Same-sex marriage is a disgrace to the nation and to God. When I was growing up, ungqingili (gay man) would not have stood in front of me. I would knock him out,†said Jacob Zuma during the Heritage Day celebrations at KwaDukuza (Stanger) in KwaZulu-Natal last weekend.
The first apology
‘I should have been more cautious and more responsible,†said Zuma in an interview [about having unsafe sex with an HIV-positive woman] on SABC radio. ‘I erred on this issue and on this, I apologise.â€
The second apology
‘I apologise unreservedly for the pain and anger that my remarks may have caused. Our lesbian and gay compatriots are protected by the Constitution and I respect their rights, in my capacity as an individual citizen and as a member and one of the leaders of the ANC.â€