The increase in South Africa’s consumer price index excluding mortgage rate changes (CPIX) for metro and other areas, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) for its inflation target, was up 5,1% year-on-year (y/y) in September after a 5% y/y increase in August, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
CPIX was up 0,3% month-on-month (m/m) after it increased by 0,5% m/m in
August.
Headline consumer prices — the 12-month rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) for metropolitan areas — was up 5,3% y/y in September from a 5,4% y/y increase in August.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile foods, municipal rates and monetary policy changes, was up 3,8% y/y in September from an increase of 3,9% in August.
CPIX was expected unchanged at 5%, an I-Net Bridge survey of 11 economists found. Forecasts ranged from 4,6% y/y to 5,2% y/y.
CPI was expected to have moderated to 5,2% y/y, with forecasts ranging from 4,8% to 5,6%.
Annabel Bishop, an economist at the Investec Group said the rise was chiefly due to price pressures from food and household operation, such as rising domestic worker wages, while the petrol price cut had a dampening effect.
“The CPIX figure is slightly above consensus. We continue to forecast a 50bp hike in interest rates at the December MPC meeting.”
Chris Hart, treasury economist at Absa said: “One can expect further pressure on inflation going forward because of the weaker rand and that is one of the only factors that we need to worry about because the price of oil and other commodities has receded lately.”
“We do however expect some recovery in the rand because of an expectation that the dollar will weaken from current levels. If that is the case then we may be near the top of the current inflation cycle.”
Magan Mistry, an economist at Nedbank, said the numbers were slightly higher than what the market had expected.
“CPI was probably contained by the 36 cents per litre reduction in the petrol price last month. Inflationary pressures will probably remain, impacted by the weaker rand. Rising food prices will see inflation climbing higher in coming months.”
Fanie Joubert, an economist at Efficient Group said the figure had been “more or less in line”.
“At this stage what is good to see is CPIX remaining relatively low and only increasing slightly from the August figure. This confirms the Reserve Bank’s view that CPIX will not break the upper end of the target range.”
Colen Garrow, an economist at Brait, said: “Higher inflation and higher interest rates unfortunately. I think we are certainly trending towards the upper end of the target range and the longer the trend persists the more likely we are to see the rate hike cycle extend into the first quarter of 2007.” – I-Net Bridge