Cool seasonal rains have slowed the march to war between Somalia’s Islamic militants and the secular government, but in the weeks ahead the tropical sun will break through the clouds, dry the muddy roads, shrink the flooded rivers and, many fear, ignite a civil war.
There have been minor skirmishes in the past few weeks. After 20 years of neglect, Somalia’s road system is in tatters and virtually impassable when it rains. That means neither side can move troops or maintain supply lines. No one wants to fight in the mud.
Diplomats are trying to take advantage of the military stalemate to break the diplomatic deadlock. When the rains end, the fighting could begin.
”There is a window of opportunity,” Italian envoy Mario Raffaelli said. ”The priority is to avoid a fight which would bring unthinkable consequences.”
Weapons have been pouring into Somalia in recent months, setting the stage for a conflict more violent than the troubled country has ever known. The United Nations alleges that 10 countries have shipped arms and supplies to both sides, including shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles.
The stand-off between the transitional federal government and the Council of Islamic Courts has also taken on a religious and regional dimension.
The internationally recognised government counts on Christian and African nations for backing. Led by Ethiopia, a block of seven African countries, known as the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (Igad), has insisted that the government it helped create is the only legitimate authority in Somalia.
The Council of Islamic Courts, which controls most of southern Somalia because the government has been fraught by infighting, has close ties to the 22-nation Arab League. According to a UN report on arms smuggling, Egypt, Libya and Saudi Arabia have sent arms and supplies to the Islamic militia.
Meanwhile, both the East African group and the Arab League have also been mediating the peace talks. The third round held in Khartoum, Sudan, in late October broke down after the Islamic courts rejected Igad as a mediator and the government objected to the Arab League.
Since the talks failed, the Islamic courts have massed troops around Baidoa, the only town held by the government. Ethiopian military advisers have helped government militias strengthen Baidoa’s defences. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi has promised to send tens of thousands of troops across the border if the Islamic courts attack.
But there was also an unconfirmed report recently that 50 battle-wagons belonging to the Islamic courts became stuck in the mud.
Military experts have said Ethiopia will not attempt an attack until the ground is dry enough to support their armoured vehicles.
Two parallel peace efforts have begun.
Egypt invited the leader of the Islamic courts, Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys, for a visit to Cairo in late October, where he met with intelligence chief General Omar Suleiman, diplomats said.
Suleiman reportedly told Aweys — who the United States government says is a terrorist — that the Islamic courts need to work on a peace deal with the government and to soften the fundamentalist rhetoric.
In an interview with the Associated Press (AP), Aweys acknowledged travelling to Cairo, but would not discuss his meetings there. He did say, however, that the Council of Islamic Courts was committed to the peace process if Ethiopia withdrew its troops.
Meanwhile, the government has split over the failure of the last Khartoum meeting. The Parliament speaker bypassed the president and launched his own talks with the Islamic courts. The prime minister condemned the move.
Omar Hashi, a member of Parliament and an aide to the speaker, said new talks were the priority.
But if the rains end without a viable peace process in place, the military option could prove irresistible.
Extremists within the Islamic movement have said they do not want peace with a secular government. They demand an Islamic government.
Top Ethiopian officials have told AP that they have an invasion plan for Somalia ready. They fear the Islamic militias will only grow stronger and become a threat to the entire region if they are not crushed.
Diplomats from the US, the European Union and the UN have been trying to put on the brakes.
A senior US military official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the topic, said the US has told Ethiopia to give peace talks a chance. He rejected suggestions that the US wanted Ethiopia to fight the Islamic militia.
On Tuesday, EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana and the European commissioner for development, Louis Michel issued a statement calling on all Somali leaders to return to talks.
In the meantime, the UN humanitarian agency issued a warning on Thursday that Somalia’s rainy season could be longer than normal this year, possibly bringing the worst flooding in 50 years. That may give Somalia’s leaders a little more time to find peace and give them something more important to worry about. — Sapa-AP