South African real retail sales growth in September rose considerably to 13,6% year-on-year (y/y) from August’s 8,8%, with consumers possibly buying strongly in anticipation of tighter conditions which beckoned.
Total retail trade sales amounted to R35,8-billion, while real growth for the year to date — recorded by Stats SA — came in at 9,9%.
“Just when it looked as though retail sales were beginning to moderate on the back of the cumulative 100 basis point rate hikes in June and August, sales surged in September. Year-on-year sales growth was the highest in the past six years, while month-on-month (m/m) sales growth was nearly 6%, an extremely strong m/m growth rate,” say independent economic analysts RLJP.
The analysts say the reasons for growth of such magnitude in September are difficult to pin down due to certain factors that may be viewed as counting against such a steep rise.
“September would have been the first full month since August’s rate hike that consumers faced interest rates a full 1% higher than a year earlier. Vehicle sales growth fell again considerably in September, while September’s trade deficit contracted sharply. Further, despite overall credit demand growth remaining incredibly strong, September’s instalment sales credit demand fell for the second month running,” they explain.
The analysts say it may well be that consumers have been engaging in pre-emptive buying ahead of the final quarter in anticipation of higher interest rates.
“Whatever the primary reason, the number suggests that overall consumer demand remained very robust in September, and the Reserve Bank will no doubt not only use this as retrospective justification for October’s rate hike but it could form part of a justification why rates should be raised again in December, despite the lagging nature of the retail sales data,” conclude the analysts. ‒ I-Net Bridge