In public, nobody wants to be South Africa’s next leader. In reality, the presidential race began in earnest this week.
Political analysts say the country is quietly gearing up for a contentious campaign ahead of a key congress in December when the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is expected to select a new leader for the party and, in turn, the nation.
Paradoxically, the sign that things are getting serious has been a chorus of ”who, me?” comments from South Africa’s leaders-in-waiting.
Politician-turned-tycoon Tokyo Sexwale, tipped by a Sunday newspaper as a compromise candidate to succeed President Thabo Mbeki when he steps down in 2009, called such reports a ”red herring” in remarks to Tuesday newspapers.
”They are kite-flying,” Sexwale said through a spokesperson. ”We treat them with disdain.”
Another potential candidate, businessman Cyril Ramaphosa, has also laughed off reports he is campaigning to become the next ANC president, and so first in line for the national presidency in 2009.
”The reports are pure speculation,” Ramaphosa said.
To add to these not-quite-denials, Deputy President Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, who as Mbeki’s second-in-command could expect a shot at the top job, has said she has no further ambitions.
Ousted deputy president Jacob Zuma, whose corruption and rape trials last year caused unprecedented divisions in the ANC, fraying its ties to labour and communist allies, also pledged to follow the ANC’s directives in the leadership scuffle.
Self-effacing politicians are nothing new in post-apartheid South Africa, where the ANC enjoys political dominance and casts itself as a broad liberation movement rather than a narrow political party.
”The ANC takes pride in the idea that the movement is more than an individual,” said Susan Booysen, a political scientist at the University of the Witwatersrand.
”But it is always a cat-and-mouse game to see who emerges as the leader. The trick is to get your strategic alliances right, but never be seen to overstep the mark of deferring to the ANC.”
Happy birthday?
Mbeki, Zuma and other ANC leaders were all smiles on Monday at a cake-cutting ceremony for the party’s 95th anniversary, a milestone that will be celebrated on Saturday when Mbeki addresses a large ANC rally to kick off the political year.
Zuma, who was once the frontrunner to succeed Mbeki, is now seen as an unlikely replacement, even though he remains ANC deputy president and is popular among its rank and file.
State prosecutors have hinted they are preparing to launch fresh charges against the charismatic Zulu politician after his earlier corruption trial collapsed.
Zuma’s dimming prospects have put other names in play besides Sexwale and Ramaphosa — two of South Africa’s richest and politically best-connected players.
Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a key Mbeki ally, is often mentioned as an insider with leadership potential, while ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe has earned the gratitude of many for holding the party together during its recent turmoil.
Other possible candidates include widely respected Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, ANC political strategist Joel Netshitenzhe and Mbeki’s current deputy, Mlambo-Ngcuka, although all are seen as long shots.
Sexwale, Ramaphosa, Motlanthe and Dlamini-Zuma ”all … have the ability to heal the divide within the party”, said Adam Habib, political analyst at the Human Sciences Research Council. ”All of them have assets, but all of them have weaknesses.”
Some analysts say the weaknesses of the current candidates may persuade Mbeki to seek another term as ANC chief in December, keeping his grip on the party while another compromise leader assumes the national presidency.
Sipho Seepe, a political analyst and academic director at Henley Management College, said talk of Sexwale or Ramaphosa candidacies could be an effort by Mbeki to smoke out the ambitions of two leading rivals.
”The ANC, and Mbeki, want to have control of the succession,” Seepe said. ”But South Africans must move away from the notion of a compromise candidate. South Africa needs leaders, not compromise leaders.” — Reuters