Plans by the opposition to mobilise Zimbabweans to block President Robert Mugabe’s bid to extend his decades-long rule could be met with overwhelming brutality from a government determined to hang on to power at any cost, analysts said on Thursday.
Morgan Tsvangirai, who heads the main faction of the splintered Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), this week announced that his party will organise popular resistance against moves by Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF party to postpone presidential elections to 2010, two years after the expiry of the veteran ruler’s current term.
”Tsvangirai is echoing the feeling among most Zimbabweans that Mugabe has become a liability to the nation,” said John Makumbe, a lecturer in political science at the University of Zimbabwe.
”He will also find support on his campaign of resistance, but I doubt whether there are many people out there who are willing to cross the line and confront the regime head on because Mugabe has a history of using brutal tactics to crush dissent,” he added.
Analysts say Mugabe’s plan to extend his rule will further hurt the country’s sinking economy.
Critics blame his controversial and often politically driven policies, such as the mass seizure of land from white commercial farms to resettle blacks, for plunging Zimbabwe’s once-vibrant economy into ruin. The economic crisis includes four-digit inflation, which is the highest in the world; rising poverty and unemployment levels; and shortages of foreign currency, fuel and food.
Both factions of the splintered MDC and civic groups in Zimbabwe have condemned the Zanu-PF plans, saying the country cannot afford to have Mugabe at the helm for two more years.
Protest action
Tsvangirai refused to discuss details on the plans, but MDC insiders said the opposition party will lead a series of street protests and industrial strikes in the coming months.
Tsvangirai, who cut his political teeth during his days as a trade unionist fighting for workers’ rights, said the MDC will push to have presidential elections in 2008 but under a new and democratic Constitution, adding Zimbabweans have suffered enough under Mugabe’s rule.
Analysts said the opposition is likely to be supported by disillusioned Zanu-PF supporters, but warned that these are unlikely to join in any street protests.
”I have no doubt there are many people in Zanu-PF who do not subscribe to the harmonisation project [that will see presidential and parliamentary polls held in 2010]. But they would only go as far as giving their blessings and tacit support to any action that seeks to reverse that plan,” said Eldred Masunungure, chairperson of the University of Zimbabwe’s department of political science.
”[Mass protests] will be met with the might of Mugabe’s security forces and any person who takes lightly the threat of the force that will be unleashed will only do that at their own peril. This government is fighting to survive and will do everything possible to remain in power,” Masunungure added.
Analysts said only a united opposition could challenge Mugabe’s grip on power more, pointing to the MDC’s split into two rival factions since October 2004 over tactics to confront the country’s sole ruler since 1980.
Warning
The Zimbabwe government has in the past warned the MDC against staging street protests, with Mugabe saying last August that soldiers would pull the trigger on demonstrators.
Critics say Zimbabwe’s once-promising economy has been savaged by years of mismanagement, putting thousands of workers into desperate working conditions that have led to strikes this year, including one by state doctors and nurses who have boycotted work since last month.
Political analysts say more strikes may be in the cards, with or without the MDC’s leadership, as average workers grow angry over the haemorrhaging economy.
Tsvangirai, who charges that Mugabe robbed his party of victory in two parliamentary polls and a presidential vote held in the past seven years, said the MDC will work with other civic and political groups under a ”Save Zimbabwe Campaign”.
”The groundswell of political and economic discontent is so great that I would suggest 90% of adults have bottled-up anger which can explode any time,” Masunungure said.
Mugabe, who turns 83 next month, blames the country’s economic crisis on the West, which he accuses of being driven by former colonial power Britain to sabotage the economy over his nationalist policies, including the land seizures. He has accused the MDC of being a puppet of Britain and the United States, and vows to resist any efforts to oust his government. — ZimOnline