The pro-Thabo Mbeki lobby in KwaZulu-Natal is making quiet inroads into the overwhelming support for ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma in the province.
The outcome of the battle for control of the provincial ANC will have a crucial bearing on the national leadership contest set to climax at the ANC national conference in Limpopo in December this year.
Mail & Guardian research can reveal that the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal is split between a vociferous and influential bloc lobbying for Zuma and a low-profile group that supports provincial Premier S’bu Ndebele’s call for Thabo Mbeki to make himself available for a third term.
Although the province has twice declared its intention to nominate Zuma to replace Mbeki as party president, Mbeki supporters are determined to dilute Zuma’s support and ensure that KwaZulu-Natal does not vote as a homogeneous bloc at the December conference.
A provincial minister known to be close to Ndebele said: ”There is no point in fighting Zuma’s popularity in the province, but there is a huge potential in lobbying possible delegates individually.
”At most, the province is likely to send 500 delegates to the conference, which would be a huge improvement on the past. At least 150 of these delegates may not be Zuma loyalists.”
KwaZulu-Natal is the second-most influential province in the ANC. Despite its larger membership, it has consistently fielded fewer delegates than the Eastern Cape, as Luthuli House auditors often find branches in the Inkatha-controlled northern Zululand not in good standing.
Only branches with at least 100 paid-up members, and which meet once a month, can send delegates to the conference. At the last national conference in Stellenbosch, KwaZulu-Natal had 75Â 035 members and the Eastern Cape 70Â 651. KwaZulu-Natal, however, sent 393 delegates compared to the Eastern Cape’s 655.
Ndebele has borne the brunt of popular support for Zuma in KwaZuluÂ-Natal, and has been pelted with stones and bottles at public gatherings in response to Zuma’s sacking as the country’s deputy president.
But more recently, he has perfected the art of fence-sitting, currying favour with the Zuma faction to save his seat as provincial chairperson while remaining a formidable behind-the-scenes lobbyist for Mbeki.
This week, he was at the centre of controversy after saying the province’s support for Zuma did not constitute its official stance on the succession race.
Last year, Ndebele scotched his enemies’ plan to topple him at a provincial general council meeting when he publicly declared that KwaZulu-Natal would nominate Zuma as its candidate.
The Zuma factor, combined with a determination to end the Eastern Cape’s 40-year domination of the ANC, has galvanised activists across the province to participate in extensive recruitment drives.
Former ANC president Albert Luthuli, who led the party until 1967, was the last ANC president to come from KwaZulu-Natal.
A KwaZulu-Natal member of the national executive committee of the ANC Women’s League said this week that patronage would be important in courting delegates. ”A draw [between pro- and anti-Zuma elements] is possible. While Ndebele controls the provincial government as premier, Zweli [Mkhize] as finance minister controls the government purse strings.”
The following is a regional breakdown of the battle for control of the KwaZulu-Natal ANC:
eThekwini region
The region, including Durban and surrounding townships, remains a no-go area for Mbeki. Ndebele was first pelted with stones at a June 16 rally in KwaMashu and Mbeki was booed at the Kingsmead Stadium while hosting Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh last year.
With 17Â 500 members, the region is the province’s most powerful and among the biggest ANC regions in the country. Zuma’s support is largely concentrated here.
The region has been instrumental in drumming up support for Zuma, financing pro-Zuma campaigns and even bussing people into ANC events where Mbeki has been heckled.
ANC regional chair and provincial safety and security minister Bheki Cele and regional secretary John Mchunu are Zuma’s key backers.
However, eThekwini mayor Obed Mlaba and municipal manager Mike Sutcliffe are thought to support Mbeki, without actively campaigning for him.
A senior ANC activist in Durban claimed that to advance its pro-Zuma agenda, the region had hijacked the Imvuselelo campaign, a move by Luthuli House to revive ANC branches nationwide.
Greater Pietermaritzburg region
The province’s second-most powerful region is currently without a regional structure. The executive committee was dissolved following a dispute between supporters of former mayor Hloni Zondi and current mayor Zanele Hlatshwayo.
Zondi is known to be loyal to Ndebele and Mbeki, while Hlatshwayo has the support of Ndebele’s arch-rival KwaZulu-Natal health minister Zweli Mkhize.
A provincial minister known to support Mbeki said: ”Zondi is now the speaker of Umgungundlovu district municipality and is lobbying intensely to be elected regional chairman in a bid to make a political comeback.”
The consensus is that Mkhize controls Pietermaritzburg.
East Griqualand region
Covering Matatiele and Kokstad, this region is expected to be a springboard for Mbeki supporters to launch an assault on Zuma.
The region now includes Umzimkhulu, a former district of the Eastern Cape brought into KwaZulu-Natal under cross-border municipal laws. It is increasingly seen to be pro-Mbeki.
A provincial minister said the ”Eastern Cape influence” now affected the whole region sharing a border with the Eastern Cape. ”The region is also seen as a threat to the influence of eThekwini, as it could emerge as the biggest region after the audit of ANC membership is done,” he said.
”Last year, Mbeki held a successful presidential imbizo there and he was very well received, with not one soul chanting Zuma slogans.”
Bhambatha/Greater Umsinga region
This southern Zululand region is currently divided, with sources in the Zuma camp saying they are aware that people such as Phillip Mhlongo, who works in the office of the mayor of KwaDukuza, are anti-Zuma.
A member of the provincial executive committee who also supports Zuma said: ”Mhlongo is very influential in the region and he has been denouncing some provincial initiatives aimed at supporting Zuma on phone-in radio programmes.”
KwaDukuza region
The region is among the most vocal in supporting Zuma and it is expected to join eThekwini in campaigning for him.
On the ground, Mbeki supporters like former mayor of KwaDukuza (Stanger), Siyanda Mhlongo, are known to oppose the province’s support for the ANC deputy president.
However, Mhlongo and the broader Mbeki lobby group are not expected to make a big impact here.
Lower South Coast region
The South Coast region (Port Shepstone) remains very influential in the province. It is strongly contested, with the Zuma camp appearing to have the edge.
Mkhize is said to be holding the line. But influential Mbeki backer and national Minister of Transport Jeff Radebe, who once chaired the region, remains very popular.
Another PEC member who supports Mbeki said: ”People like comrade Jeff remain very influential in the South Coast. He and Nkosazana [Dlamini-Zuma], who chairs the KwaZulu-Natal women’s league, are senior comrades whose views are respected by activists.
”They could be deployed by the national office to heal the rift among comrades in the province.”
But any efforts by the Mbeki-ites will be met with stiff resistance from Mkhize’s lieutenants, who include Ugu district mayor Sithembiso Cele and disgraced former MP Ruth Bhengu, now a deputy mayor in the district.
Other regions
Regions that fall under the IFP-controlled areas are notorious for having branches that are not in good standing.
Zuma comes from such an area, iNkandla, where even IFP supporters are sympathetic to him.
Other such regions are Malahleni near Newcastle; Utrecht, where Mlambo-Ngcuka was heckled; North Coast (Richards Bay); Abaqulusi (Vryheid); Far North (Manguzi/Jozini); and Ukhahlamba (Ladysmith).
Although supporting Zuma, they have contributed very little to the province’s delegation to ANC conferences.
Membership
KwaZulu-Natal Regions Membership audited for NGC (Feb 2005)
- eThekwini: 17Â 560
- Greater Pietermaritzburg: 7Â 542
- East Griqualand (Kokstad): 5Â 874
- Lower South Coast (Port Shepstone): 5Â 527
- KwaDukuza: 5Â 208
- North Coast: 4Â 933
- Ukhahlamba (Estcourt): 4Â 566
- Abaqulusi: 4Â 362
- Far North (Manguzi/Jozini): 4Â 295
- Bhambatha/Greater Umsinga: 3Â 452
- Malahleni (Newcastle): 3Â 357
Total: 66Â 676
Source: ANC Organisational Report June 2005